628
FXUS62 KMFL 030605
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A generally unsettled pattern will remain intact, as subtle
mid/upper level troughing remains in place over the region. This
will allow for a series of upper level impulses to eject
southward, and induce low-level mass convergence within the
boundary layer. With a fetch of deep subtropical moisture in place
(PW around 1.8 to 2.1 inches) scattered showers and thunderstorms
will again remain a concern through the day today. Given the weak
westerly flow regime atop a fetch of east-southeast boundary
layer winds, expect disorganized clusters of showers and
thunderstorms to impact the east coast this morning, gradually
impacting the interior and southwest portions of Florida later in
the day. There is an outside chance at a few strong to perhaps
marginally severe thunderstorms across this interior/southwest
sector this afternoon; however actual realization of this is
conditionally dependent on forcing for ascent sufficiently
juxtaposed with pockets of higher instability. The main impacts
associated with thunderstorms will therefore be strong wind gusts,
localized flooding, and possibly small hail (less likely).

Tuesday will generally remain similar, though with perhaps
slightly less overall convective coverage. The aforementioned
upper troughing and embedded impulses will allow for bursts that
may not necessarily follow the typical diurnal heating pattern.
Therefore, one should again anticipate early morning coverage
along the east coast, with a gradual inland propagation. The
primary hazards to consider will again be strong winds and
localized flooding, with the latter being more of a concern for
recently saturated locations. The easterly winds will allow for
less oppressive conditions, as the east coast should experience
maximum temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, and heat indices
below 100 degrees. For the interior and west coast, temperatures
may reach the low/mid 90s and heat indices may exceed 100, but
should remain below advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Weak mid-level troughing near the Florida Peninsula will
gradually transition to a more zonal pattern by mid-week. At the
surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to
induce light easterly wind flow over the region. This setup will
lead to a return to a typical summertime pattern across South
Florida, with shower and thunderstorm activity driven by sea
breezes. Convection will initially develop over local waters and
the east coast areas in the morning, shifting towards the interior
and west coast in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures on
Tuesday and Wednesday will generally reach the upper 80s to
around 90 along the east coast and the lower 90s in the interior
and west coast areas.

Heading into the latter half of the week, mid-level troughing
will amplify over the Southeastern United States. At the surface,
a frontal boundary will advance through the Gulf Coast states and
Northern Florida on Thursday into Friday. This front may progress
further southeast into Central Florida by the weekend. The exact
positioning of the front remains highly uncertain; however, it
will cause winds across South Florida to veer to a south to
southwesterly direction as the week ends and the weekend begins.
While convection will continue to be primarily sea breeze-driven
towards the end of the week and into the weekend, the highest
chances of storms may shift towards the interior and east coast.
The front could provide additional lift and instability,
increasing storm chances, depending on its southward progression.
This scenario remains highly uncertain due to varying guidance and
being at the forecast periods end, and will be monitored as the
week progresses. Temperatures will steadily increase through the
latter half of the week and into the weekend. Highs will reach the
lower 90s along the coasts and the mid to upper 90s in the
interior sections. Heat indices will rise into the triple digits
across most areas each day, driven by the developing south to
southwesterly wind flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Easterly winds around 10 kts through the period. An afternoon
westerly Gulf breeze is expected at APF. Scattered showers this
morning, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage this afternoon
into early evening. Erratic winds possible in/near storms, along
with sub-VFR ceilings and visbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Aside from scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters,
boating conditions will be mostly favorable through this week.
Easterly winds around 5 to 10 knots can be expected, with locally
elevated winds and seas around thunderstorms. Seas generally
should not exceed 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A high risk for rip currents remains in place today for the Palm
Beaches, with an elevated risk for the remainder of the east coast
beaches. Conditions continue to improve by mid week as the
easterly flow weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  77  88  78 /  60  30  60  50
West Kendall     88  74  90  75 /  60  30  60  50
Opa-Locka        89  76  90  77 /  60  30  60  50
Homestead        88  76  88  77 /  60  40  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  87  77  87  78 /  50  30  60  50
N Ft Lauderdale  87  77  88  77 /  50  30  60  50
Pembroke Pines   90  77  92  78 /  50  30  60  50
West Palm Beach  87  75  89  76 /  50  20  50  40
Boca Raton       88  76  89  77 /  50  30  60  40
Naples           90  75  93  76 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...CMF