330
FXUS62 KMFL 021920
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
320 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

South Florida will remain in the periphery of a surface high located
off the Carolina coastline, allowing for continued easterly flow and
moisture advection across our region. This, along with an upper-
level shortwave that will drift southward along the peninsula today,
will lead to increased chances for rainfall across much of the
region. Multiple rounds of spotty showers and a few thunderstorms
have already moved across the local Atlantic waters and the East
Coast metro; activity will continue through the evening, with
coverage shifting westward towards interior and southwest FL as
winds speeds pick up. The primary risk with the convective
development today will be the risk of localized flooding due to
heavy rainfall. To this effect, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
has placed the East Coast metro area under an Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO) for this afternoon. This means that for any given
location within the ERO, there is at least a 5% chance that rainfall
could exceed flash flood guidance within 25 miles of that spot.
Secondary risks with the shower and storm activity today also
include the chance for gusty winds and frequent lightning.

The forecast will be fairly similar heading into Monday, with the
exception of the surface high`s influence, which will drift eastward
and will allow for lighter easterly winds to be realized across the
area. Nevertheless, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
will remain elevated given the enhanced moisture profile and
continue presence of upper-level support. At this time we capped
PoPs at 60% for Monday afternoon, with  capped at 50%.

Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical
easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east
coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Weak mid level troughing near the Florida Peninsula will
gradually become more zonal heading into the middle of the week.
At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will
continue to bring light easterly wind flow to the region. This
will result in the return to more of a typical summertime pattern
across South Florida as shower and thunderstorm chances will be
sea breeze driven. The highest chances of convection will start
out over the local waters as well as the east coast areas in the
morning, and then will shift towards the interior and west coast
in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures on Tuesday
and Wednesday will generally rise into the upper 80s to around 90
across the east coast, and into the lower 90s across the interior
and west coast.

Heading into the latter half of the week, mid level troughing
will amplify over the Southeastern portion of the country. At the
surface, a frontal boundary will push through the Gulf Coast
states on Thursday into Friday as well as Northern Florida during
this time frame. This front may try to push further southeastward
into Central Florida heading into the first part of the weekend.
While the exact positioning of this front still remains highly
uncertain for this part of the forecast, the frontal boundary will
cause the winds to veer across South Florida and become south to
southwesterly heading into the end of the week and into the first
part of the weekend. Convection chances will still be mainly sea
breeze driven towards the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend, however, the highest chances may shift towards the
interior and east coast during this time frame. The front may
provide some extra lift and instability to the region heading
into the weekend depending on how far south it travels. However,
this remains highly uncertain at this time due to differences in
the guidance as well as this being towards the end of the forecast
period. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses.

Temperatures will be on a moderating trend across the region
during the latter half of the week and into the upcoming weekend
as high temperatures rise into the lower 90s across the coasts and
into the mid to upper 90s across the interior sections. Heat
indices will also increase into the triple digits across most of
the area each day during this time frame as south to southwesterly
wind flow develops.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible at all sites
this afternoon as scattered SHRA/TSRA develop across South FL.
Confidence of direct impacts remains limited at this time, but
short-fuse TEMPOs could be issued as conditions deteriorate. Winds
will remain out of the east at 15 kts, with chances of gusts up
to 25 kts. SHRA over the Atlantic and immediate East Coast could
remain a concern overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Boating conditions will continue to improve today and into the
workweek as breezy easterly winds gradually diminish in strength.
Seas will remain in the 3-5 ft range today, staying at or below 3
feet through the first half of the week. Nevertheless, scattered
showers and storms each afternoon could result in localized higher
seas and winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Breezy easterly winds along the East Coast will result in a high
risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches today. The risk will
diminish as the week progresses and winds die down.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  87  77  88 /  50  60  60  60
West Kendall     74  88  74  90 /  50  60  50  60
Opa-Locka        76  88  77  90 /  50  60  50  50
Homestead        76  87  77  89 /  50  60  60  60
Fort Lauderdale  77  86  77  87 /  50  60  60  50
N Ft Lauderdale  76  87  77  88 /  50  60  50  50
Pembroke Pines   76  90  77  92 /  50  60  50  50
West Palm Beach  74  88  75  88 /  40  50  40  50
Boca Raton       76  88  76  89 /  40  60  50  50
Naples           74  91  74  93 /  50  60  70  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...ATV