182
FXUS62 KMHX 181406
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1006 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will stall across the waters today, then
shift east tonight as another area of low pressure approaches
from the west. That low will impact the area through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 1005 AM Saturday...

KEY POINTS:

- Shower coverage will remain minimal over the next few hours
  across ENC though low clouds and drizzle may stick around
  areas north of Hwy 264.

- As we get into the afternoon a low threat for some strong to
  severe thunderstorms will remain possible and the area remains
  in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Highest
  likelihood to see stronger storms will be across areas around
  and south of Hwy 264 this afternoon and evening where
  greatest instability will be. Storms will mainly bring a
  damaging wind threat to the area.

-During the afternoon and evening, a heavy rain and potential
 flash flooding risk sets up along frontal boundary in ENC.
 Where this boundary sets up will determine where the heaviest
 rainfall develops. ENC remains in a marginal risk (level 1 of
 5) for excessive rainfall.

Rather stark difference in current obs across the area with latest
surface analysis showing warm front stretching from NW to SE
across portions of S`rn Pitt into Downeast. To the south of this
warm front breaks in the clouds have developed with temps well
into the 70s as S`rly flow pumps warm moist air N`wards, while
to the north, low clouds, E`rly winds, drizzle and temps in 50s
and low 60s are noted. Expect this front to eventually stall
somewhere around the Hwy 264 vicinity this afternoon as a wave
of low pressure rides E along this stalled front. THis will
bring a threat for more widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity later this afternoon and evening.

Prev Disc...Warm front extending from a sfc low to our west
lifts north through the area before setting shop along the hwy
264 corridor this evening. This warm front provides us with the
most effective forcing through the afternoon and evening. Heavy
showers and scattered thunderstorms could form up along the warm
front, and train in one location as long as the front is
stationary. This would result in an increased risk of flash
flooding for the hwy 264 corridor, including Greenville. Further
south, we have no shortage of instability setting up in the WAA
regime, but a lack of forcing will help mitigate storm
initiation. Fortunately for us the warm front is displaced from
the area of highest instability, lessening our severe threat for
today despite ample shear. We have been downgraded from a
slight to a marginal risk of severe weather by the SPC, with
severe winds the primary threat. Warm front begins to dip back
south Saturday evening. The timing of this movement will play a
large role in the severe potential for the Crystal Coast. If the
warm front dips down before sunset, while there is still decent
instability, severe potential will be higher. If it dips down
after sunset, severe potential decreases.

Temperatures on Saturday will vary quite a bit from SW to NE.
South of the stalled front, highs should warm into the 70s and
80s, while north of the boundary, highs may struggle to get out
of the 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM Saturday...Warm front continues moving south and
spins off a weak sfc low which will then push offshore Sunday
morning with stronger northerly flow ensuing as the low deepens
offshore. Upper level low trailing behind the sfc low provides
enough forcing for showers to linger through Saturday night.
Heavy rain is still possible through the night along and east of
hwy 17 as low formation provides additional forcing. Lows
Saturday night near 60 inland and for NOBX, mid 60s for the
remainder of the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will impact the
region through the weekend. High pressure builds in from the
north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will
approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.

Sunday...Low pressure will push offshore by early in the day
bringing a more stable environment across the area, however the
upper trough will slowly push across the area Sunday continuing
to bring the threat for rain showers across ENC on a brisk nerly
breeze. Even if no rain, ovc skies and breezy conditions will
prevent temps from rising much, and remaining only in the 60s
through the day. Drier conditions ensue Sun night with lows in
the 50s.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid-
Atlantic. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with
steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 70s,
then by Tue and esp Wed into Thu, rise through the 80s and back
above climo. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise
into the 60s by mid week.

Friday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a
shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s
end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a
warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this
far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sat night/...
As of 715 AM Friday...Widespread VFR through much of the
region, although low ceilings exist where the cluster of high-
coverage showers are moving through. Conditions will continue
deteriorating following the showers, improving to VFR behind it. As
second wave of precip comes through late afternoon onwards chances
of thunderstorms and heavy rain increase, with ceilings in the
VFR/MVFR range. Saturday night a drop to IFR is expected with
low level moisture increasing, resulting in low ceilings.

LONG TERM /Sun through Wed/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A low pressure system will impact the area
through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions. Pred
VFR conditions are expected early through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...Warm front lifts north through the
day, with winds becoming E or SE for all waters. Wind speeds
will be in the 5-15kt range. Along the boundary, widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected, the strongest
of which could produce gusty winds of 34kt+ and small hail. The
boundary then stalls, with breezy southwesterly winds of 10-15kt
developing south of it, and 10- 20kt easterly winds to the
north. A low will move along the boundary, then shift offshore
Saturday night. Increasing northeasterly winds are then expected
behind the departing low. Winds will be approaching 25kt late
Saturday night, increasing to 25-30kt Sunday morning for
northern waters and sounds as the low deepens offshore.

For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4 ft will be common through
Saturday. Seas will then begin to build to 3-6 ft Saturday
night into Sunday morning within the strengthening
northeasterly surge of wind behind the departing low.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will shift off of
the NC coast during the day Sun, with gusty nerly winds in it`s
wake. Solid SCA cond expected across all waters and sounds,
including Alligator River, through Sunday as winds inc to 20-30
kt. SCA cond linger into Monday evening for Pamlico Sound and
the coastal waters as moderately gusty ne winds keep seas
elevated and wind gusts aoa 25 kt. Seas expected to drop below 6
ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 AM Sat...A warm front will stall west to east along hwy
264 (including Greenville) for a time later today into the
evening, with the potential for convection to train along the
boundary. If this occurs, max QPF guidance suggests rainfall
amounts as high as 3- 6". This may occur over a relatively small
area, but is noteworthy coming on the heels of the recent round
of rain. Where/if this occurs, there would be a locally higher
risk of hydro/flash flooding concerns, and we`ll be closely
monitoring this potential.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ152.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX