753
FXUS62 KMHX 240913
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
513 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will reside across the piedmont while a series
of upper level shortwaves will generate multiple rounds of
shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend. A stronger
cold front will move through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Friday...A cluster of storms is moving across the
northern half of the CWA. This convection is supported by a
mid-level shortwave embedded within otherwise zonal flow aloft.

This afternoon, a low is forecast to develop along a surface
trough bisecting NC from NE to SW. This, along with the
afternoon seabreeze, will provide even better lift for shower
and thunderstorm development. High PWATs (1.75-2+"), modest deep
layer shear (~30 kt), and sufficient SBCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg)
and mid-level lapse rates (6.5-7 C/km) will provide an
environment capable of producing strong to severe thunderstorms.
The main hazards of concern are heavy rainfall, gusty winds,
and hail. SPC has outlined the area roughly south of HWY 264 in
a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather.

The consensus of the CAMs is that there will be two main periods
of activity today. Through the morning, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will move from southwest to northeast across the
area. This afternoon, a more potent cluster of storms looks to
form over the coastal plain and move SE through the evening
hours, going offshore by midnight. With the incoming wave from
the west and the seabreeze from the east, opposing flow could
cause the seabreeze to become pinned. If this happens, that area
would likely recieve the highest rainfall amount. The coastal
plain and NOBX are expected to get the bulk of the rainfall with
QPF ranging from 0.5-1" with locally higher amounts.

Highs will reach the mid/upper 80s across the coastal plain and
upper 70s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Friday...Shower and thunderstorm activity will
continue to progress eastward through the evening hours but
everything should be offshore around midnight. The severe threat
will gradually diminish after sunset with the best chance for
strong offshore storms being south of Cape Hatteras. Lows will
be mild once again in the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

 - Periods of thunderstorms through Tuesday

 - Above to well above normal temps Sunday and Monday

 - Trending drier and not as hot mid to late-week

An anomalous mid/upper level ridge will extend west to east from
Mexico to Florida through the middle of next week, with a mostly
zonal flow aloft to the north across the southern US. Within this
flow, several shortwaves originating over the Plains will traverse
the Carolinas, interacting with a moist and unstable airmass,
producing periods of showers and thunderstorms. In this type of
setup, thunderstorms are possible just about anytime of day or
night, and will be highly dependent on the track and timing of each
wave that moves through, as well as any impact from the previous
day`s convection. Each day, guidance suggests MLCAPE as high as 1000-
2000j/kg, with deep layer shear of 25-35kt. This shear/instability
combination is at least marginally conducive to severe weather, and
this is something we`ll have to keep an eye on each day. At the
moment, it appears that Sunday and Monday may carry the best
potential for a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms (thanks to
the potential for higher instability and slightly higher shear).
Additionally, Monday should feature stronger forcing, which may also
aid in the thunderstorm/severe risk.

A cold front is forecast to move through Monday night, but this may
not completely shut down the thunderstorm risk right away. Some
guidance has trended a bit slower with the front, with the potential
for a wave to ride up along the front on Tuesday with another chance
of showers and thunderstorms. There isn`t yet a solid signal for
additional precip on Tuesday, but something to watch. Eventually, a
strong upper level trough is forecast to move through, providing
more of a clean sweep of low-level moisture and instability. This
will also usher in lower temperatures. Some areas inland may see
lows back in the 50s for a day or two late next week.

Prior to the arrival of the lower temps and dewpoints, there will be
a period of above to well above normal temps through Monday thanks
to warm low-level thicknesses and, in the absence of thunderstorms,
strong heating. This appears supportive of highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s inland, with low to mid 80s along the coast. Lows will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Near-record warm lows are possible,
especially Sunday night/Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 1:45 AM Friday...A line of convection is moving across the
coastal plain and into our western counties. This may bring
periods of gusty winds and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities.
Widespread fog development is not expected given the light winds
and cloud cover, but some patchy fog can`t be ruled out late
tonight. Precip chances will decrease Friday morning and then
increase through the day. Similarly to tonight, VFR cats are
expected outside of convection. Afternoon and evening ceilings
will be close to MVFR (3500 to 4500 ft) but will lift as we
progress into the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

There will be an increased risk of TSRA and accompanying sub-VFR
conditions through early next week. Gusty southerly winds can be
expected as well, especially on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday night/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...There is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day, although this afternoon and
evening will be when chances are greatest. Some storms could be
strong to severe with the main concerns being heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and hail. The wind field will generally be SW at
10-15 kt with winds over the northern waters turn slightly more
southerly this afternoon. 2-3 ft seas through the period.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

 - Approaching Small Craft conditions Monday/Monday night

 - Periods of thunderstorms through early next week

Several upper level waves will move through the ENC coastal waters
through early next week. Each wave will bring with it a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. A stronger wave, and associated cold
front, then moves through Monday/Monday night. Southerly winds will
increase to 15-20kt ahead of this front, and may approach 25kt for
some waters. Right now, though, the risk of widespread 25kt winds
appears low (<10% chance). Seas of 1-3 ft over the weekend will
increase to 3-4 ft Monday with the building winds. The highest seas
are expected south of Cape Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...OJC/RM
MARINE...OJC/RM