499
FXUS62 KMHX 050733
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
333 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front near the Albemarle Sound will lift north this
morning while high pressure remains off the Southeast coast
through today. A strong cold front will approach from the west
Thursday and move through Friday bringing slightly cooler and
drier conditions over the weekend. Another frontal system will
likely impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 315 AM Wed... Another warm and muggy morning on tap with some
isolated shower activity, mainly along our offshore waters and
near the Albemarle Sound where a weak front is located.
Otherwise, with high pressure centered offshore light SW`rly
winds, a mix of high and mid level clouds, and temps in the 70s
are currently noted. This ongoing cloud cover will likely limit
any potential fog threat and keep temps rather warm with lows
this morning only forecast to drop another few degrees into the
upper 60s by daybreak.

As we get into the day, upper ridging over the Southeastern CONUS
will gradually begin to flatten and break down as an upper
level trough in the Upper Midwest and an upper low near the Gulf
Coast States approach from the west. Two mid level shortwaves
also approach the Carolinas from the west today with the first
flattening and eventually dissipating before it gets to the
Appalachians while the second and stronger trough begins to
approach the Appalachians near sunset. At the surface, ridging
remains offshore keeping deep layer S-SW`rly flow across ENC
today with winds potentially gusting to around 20-25 mph this
afternoon at times. While we will continue to remain warm and
muggy, with upper ridging still overhead subsidence aloft will
likely inhibit widespread shower and thunderstorm development.
But, a few isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
could develop and as such kept SChc to low end Chc PoP`s in the
forecast. In addition to this, there is the potential for
widespread high and mid level cloud cover to stick around for
much of the day today limiting insolation and thus instability.
Hi-Res CAM guidance generally suggests 500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE
across ENC today. With minimal shear expected (15-25 kts) across
the area as well, the severe threat while not zero is once again
very low. Temps will be toasty with highs around 90 across the
coastal plain and mid-80s along the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Wed... As we get into tonight a brief lull in
precipitation will be possible especially late overnight and
into early Thurs morning as the upper ridge finally flattens
completely and previously mentioned upper trough with
associated mid level shortwave enter into the western Carolinas
overnight. Either way, have SChc at best PoP`s across the
region this evening as an isolated to widely scattered
shower/tstm or two will remain possible. A rinse and repeat for
temps tonight as the area remains muggy and warm with lows in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected Thursday and Thursday night ahead of a cold front. The
front will move through Friday. Mostly dry with more comfortable
temps expected this weekend. Another frontal system will likely
impact the area early next week with increasing rain chances.

Thursday...Still looks like an active day as upper trough and
strong cold front approach the area. Sct showers and iso tstm
potential in the morning, with chances increasing through the
day with better forcing and moisture ahead of the front.
Similar to the last few days, will be moist and unstable though
weak shear will continue to limit the overall svr threat.
However, an isolated strong storm with gusty winds and small
hail will be possible. PWATs will approach 2 inches for most of
the area, so moderate to locally heavy rain also possible. An
increase in heat and humidity is also likely as highs climb into
the upper 80s to low 90s, and it will feel like 95-100 degrees
for most of the area when factoring in the humidity.

Friday through Sunday...The front will move through Friday.
Isolated showers and storms may linger along the coast through
the day, with seabreeze likely pinned in the afternoon and weak
boundary in the vicinity. Upper troughing becomes more zonal
along the east coast through the weekend with weak high pressure
building in, depicting drier and slightly cooler conditions
across eastern NC. A more comfortable airmass expected over the
weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s and high
temps in the 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...Still a high amount of uncertainty early
next week, with the potential for another frontal system to
impact the area. The GFS is the more progressive model pushing a
front through Sunday night/early Mon, while the EC is the
slower/stronger/wetter solution. Will continue to cap pops at
chance given the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 1 AM Wed...No significant changes to the forecast on this
update as the forecast calls for predominantly VFR conditions
through the TAF period outside of mainly diurnally driven
showers and storms, though cannot rule out an isolated shower
through daybreak today. While low levels remain nearly saturated
and winds will be light, ensemble guidance is showing fog
potential to be low, generally less than 15% chance. As we get
into the day on Wed SW`rly winds will be on the increase
generally persisting at 10-15 kts Wed afternoon with gusts up
near 20 kts at times. WInds then quickly decrease around sunset
back down to 5-10 kts.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Patchy MVFR cigs may linger across the
terminals through mid morning. Scattered to numerous showers
and storms expected Thu afternoon and evening ahead of a cold
front, which could bring periods of sub- VFR conditions. Pred
VFR conditions return Friday into the weekend, behind the cold
front with weak high pressure building into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 320 AM Wed... Our stretch of benign boating conditions
comes to an end this evening as high pressure remains centered
offshore while a cold front begins to approach from the west
tightening the pressure gradient and increasing the winds across
our waters. Ongoing 5-10 kt SW`rly winds with gusts up around
10-15 kts will increase to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts
across much of our waters by this evening. These elevated winds
then persist into the end of the period. As a result have
hoisted SCA`s starting between 8-11 PM this evening across all
waters but the inland rivers where slightly lower winds and more
uncertainty with how strong wind gusts get. Otherwise 1-2 ft
seas gradually increase to 2-4 ft tonight as the winds increase
with yet another chance at some isolated to widely scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity through the period.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Gradient will continue to tighten Thursday
ahead of a cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt with
SCA conditions likely for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound
through Thu night. Will be marginal for the Albemarle Sound, but
SCA may need to be extended. The cold front will move through
Friday and Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds
becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW- WNW winds Sat 5-15
kt. Moderate SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another cold front.
Seas will build to building to 3-6 ft Thursday, subsiding to
2-4 ft Fri and cont into the weekend.

More uncertainty early next week with potential for another
frontal system to impact the area. SCA conditions possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ131-230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     Thursday night for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF