514
FXUS62 KMHX 261855
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
255 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will then move through Monday night or Tuesday.
Conditions dry slightly Tuesday and Wednesday before the next
front passes late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
Cooler temps and lower dew points follow in its wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Shortwave ridging will shift offshore tonight,
allowing southwesterly flow aloft to develop ahead of a potent
upper level trough and sfc cold front approaching from the
west. Isolated seabreeze showers and storms possible through
early this evening. Where/if convection can form, and be
sustained, moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2000 j/kg) and
20-30 kt of deep layer shear will be supportive of a pulse
severe thunderstorm scenario, with mainly a wind and hail risk.
Many of the CAMs continue to show weakening MCS, currently
moving through KY/TN, moving into the Carolinas this late this
evening and tonight making a run at the coastal plain between
1-7z. If convection can sustain itself, the combination of
MUCAPE of 500-1000j/kg, steepening lapse rates, and modest shear
appears supportive of gusty winds and small hail, mainly across
the coastal plain. The risk of severe weather tonight isn`t
zero, but still appears to be low for most of the area.

Above normal temps overnight, with lows only falling into the
upper 60s to low 70s. Pesky dense sea fog along the northern
Outer Banks has finally dissipated this afternoon. However,
several of the high res models bring back it back this evening
and overnight. Think this is too pessimistic with winds picking
up, so just kept some patchy fog wording...though locally dense
sea fog will be possible, mainly impacting the beaches north of
Oregon Inlet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Active wx day with potential for severe weather
and potentially the hottest day of the year thus far. Strong low
pressure will continue to lift into the Great Lakes, pushing the
attendant cold front eastward into the Carolinas, while strong
shortwave rotates through the flow aloft.

SPC has upgraded the area to a Slight Risk for severe weather.
Severe wx threat for the area may hinge on a few different
factors, first one being the MCS expected to develop and move
through TN/SC/GA Mon morning. This could bring cluster of
showers and iso storms to eastern NC Monday morning and early
afternoon. *If* this were to happen it could limit
afternoon/evening tstm risk. However, the environment will be
supportive for strong to severe convection, with ML CAPE values
2500-3000 J/kg, very strong deep layer shear 40-50 kt, 0-3 km
SRH 200-300 m2/s2, and steep mid level lapse rates. Damaging
wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, large hail and locally heavy
rain will all be possible. Limiting factors for strong to severe
development will be the capping inversion and possible morning
precip. So still uncertainty with the svr risk, but the
potential is certainly there, with best chances after Mon
afternoon and evening.

In addition to severe wx risk - temps will climb into the low
90s inland and 80s for the beaches. Combined with dewpoints in
the 70s will make it feel close to 100 deg for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...A complex upper-level pattern will keep
the beginning of the long term busy. Cold front will move
through Mon night into early Tue.

Tuesday-Wednesday...PoPs decrease from west to east on Tuesday
as we settle into the slightly cooler and drier post-frontal air
mass. Temps will reach the mid- to upper-80s both days with
afternoon dew points in the refreshing mid-50s by Wednesday.

Thursday-Sunday...The next cold front is set to pass late
Wednesday/early Thursday. This will bring in a cooler air mass
and limit highs each day to the low- to mid-80s across the
coastal plain. The beaches will hang back in the 70s. The
forecast remains dry until the end of the weekend when the next
potent shortwave introduces slight chance (20-25%) PoPs across
the area. It should be noted, however, that other shortwaves
will be embedded within the flow prior to the one on Sunday, and
it`s possible that PoPs trend up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...VFR conditions currently across the terminals
with sct cu beginning to develop. Isolated seabreeze showers
and storms possible this afternoon and early evening. Later
this evening, and into tonight, we`ll be watching TSRA upstream
across western and central NC, as some of these storms may make
a run at the coastal plain between 01z-07z. If TSRA make it this
far east, there would be an increased risk of sub- VFR
conditions, along with gusty/erratic winds to 40kt and small
hail. Another round of sct showers and iso storms possible
Monday morning, with better chances for stronger storms later
Monday afternoon and evening. Brief period of sub-VFR conditions
possible Monday morning between 12-16z, with best chances at
PGV. Gustier SSW winds develop Mon with gusts 15-20 kt in the
afternoon.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms are expected
Monday night with a drying trend setting up after that. Periods
of sub-VFR conditions are to be expected but flight cats should
remain VFR outside of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Latest obs show light SE-S winds 5-10 kt with
seas 1-2 ft. Winds will begin to pick up a bit overnight,
increasing to 5-15 kt. Gradient tightens Monday ahead of the
cold front, with SSW winds increasing to 15-25 kt and seas
building to 3-4 ft Monday afternoon and evening. Have issued
SCAs for the coastal waters and sounds beginning Mon afternoon.
Sct showers and storms expected Mon, may bring stronger to
severe storms late Mon.

Pesky dense sea fog along the northern Outer Banks has finally
dissipated this afternoon. However, several of the high res
models bring back it back this evening and overnight. Think
this is too pessimistic with winds picking up, so just kept some
patchy fog wording...though locally dense sea fog will be
possible, mainly waters north of Oregon Inlet.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...SW flow 15-25 kt by Monday night with seas
3-6 ft. Conditions improve Tuesday with SW flow returning to
10-15 kt and seas decreasing to 2-4 ft. 10 kt winds wobble
between northwesterly and southwesterly on Wednesday. Another
front late Wednesday/early Thursday will turn 10 kt winds
northwesterly by morning and northeasterly by evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...CQD/OJC
MARINE...CQD/OJC