Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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867 FXUS62 KMLB 231258 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 858 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New UPDATE, FIRE WEATHER... .UPDATE... Issued at 858 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Morning sounding at XMR and GOES-16 TPW imagery shows a rather dry airmass in place across the area, with PW values around 0.7-0.9". This combined with ridge extending across the area aloft will keep rain chances out of the forecast today and continue the gradual warming trend we have seen this week. Highs will be near to above normal across the area, maxing out around the mid-upper 80s along the coast, with earlier development of the east coast sea breeze, and rising into the low to mid 90s over the interior. Skies will be mostly to partly sunny, with easterly winds around 5 to 10 mph. Forecast on track, with no changes planned. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 858 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Today...Drier airmass across the area today will lead to fire sensitive conditions across the interior, where Min RH values will fall as low as the 30s. The inland moving east coast sea breeze will keep Min RH above critical levels along the coast, with values generally in the 50s. Winds will be light this morning, generally out of the east, with speeds increasing to around 10 mph as the sea breeze moves westward. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...Remaining mostly dry and becoming hotter than normal through late week... ...Isolated afternoon showers and lightning storms possible into the holiday weekend, but remaining drier than normal and hot, with highs well into the 90s... Current...Mostly dry across the area early this morning as deep layer moisture values are rather pathetic (below normal). Weak high pressure ridging exists across north-central FL. A light onshore flow will promote morning lows well into the 60s with some L70s. Skies mostly clear with a few clouds noted across the Treasure Coast. Not expecting much in the way of fog development, but smoke from any lingering active or smoldering brush fires will still be able to cause visibility concerns along area roadways, especially near the large "Sandy Drain" wildfire. Today-Tonight...Mid-level troughing continues across the western Atlc/Bahamas with mid-level ridging centered in the SW GoMex extending into the FL peninsula. Mid-level winds will be out of the NW/N. At the surface, initial weak high pressure ridging off of the Carolina coast will weaken further and drift slowly eastward. This will promote a fairly weak pressure gradient across ECFL. Initial light morning winds will become onshore as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. PWAT values between 0.80-1.10 inches will only increase marginally and precip chances will remain below 10pct areawide and will leave out any mention in the grids/zones. Temperatures continue to trend upward, with highs in the M-U80s for the immediate coast and L-M90s into the interior. Overnight lows remain consistent with conditions humid, and values well into the 60s to L70s. Fri-Wed...Much of this period will be highlighted by increasing temperatures. Mid-level ridging will extend across the GoMex to across the FL peninsula into early next week as any decent shortwave energy remains north of the area. Some weak energy aloft does finally push south across the area by late Tue thru mid next week. At the surface, a rather weak pressure gradient remains in place thru the weekend. Surface high pressure does get nudged further south/east late in the weekend and early next week with a potential frontal boundary getting forced south into the area late Tue/Wed. These two days will also have the deepest moisture across the area with the highest PoP chances over the extended. PoPs mostly absent from the forecast on Fri, though will have to watch late in the day/early evening well into the interior with any sea breeze collision, and a 20pct chance (aftn/evening) or less Sat-Mon, with most areas remaining dry. Chc (30-40pct) PoPs returning Tue-Wed. Highs mostly in the 90s areawide each day with maxes in the M-U90s for many inland areas at least thru Tue. Heat indices in the U90s to L100s on Fri, then L-M100s each day thru at least Tue and some U100s Sun-Tue, generally south of Orlando and Melbourne, which would flirt with Heat Advisory criteria. Conditions overnight humid with values 70-75F on average for most. Take extra precaution if participating in outdoor activities this Memorial Day weekend. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 728 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals today. Onshore flow will continue, with winds remaining between 5 to 10 knots. After 03Z, winds will become light and variable to calm. No rain chances are forecast through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Today-Tonight...Overall favorable boating conditions with weak high pressure across the area. Light ERLY onshore flow thru this period, except may become light/variable to light SSW late tonight into early Fri morning with a weak pressure gradient in place. Seas 2-3 ft. Perhaps a few light showers early this morning across the Treasure Coast waters, but mostly dry conditions otherwise. Thu-Sun...Continued favorable boating conditions, though it will be increasingly hot and any shower/storm chances will only be ISOLD to WDLY SCT - most likely across the Gulf Stream. Winds again become onshore each late morning and afternoon with daily sea breeze regime (10-15 kts along the coast), but will veer a light offshore component or become light/variable each overnight period. Seas mostly AOB 3 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 93 70 95 73 / 0 0 10 0 MLB 87 71 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 88 69 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 93 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 92 69 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 93 71 95 74 / 0 0 10 0 FPR 88 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Tollefsen