641
FXUS62 KMLB 250157
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
957 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Sea breeze collision occurred around 8 pm from Lake George to the
Four Corners. Isolated showers developed along this boundary
collision to our north and south but only an increase in clouds
occurred over Lake/western Orange/NW Osceola. Evening sounding
from the Cape continues to show a capping inversion at about 8k
ft so this will prevent deep convection (thunder). A quiet and
mild overnight is forecast. The sea breeze circulation will
continue to dissipte with loss of daytime heating and the
prevailing wind flow will become light south to southwest.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Key Messages...
-Potential record heat through the holiday weekend as highs climb
 well into the 90s, and a few locations approach 100.
-A lightning storm or two this evening can`t be ruled out, then
 chances including the potential for stronger storms increase
 this weekend.

Rest of Today-Saturday...Mostly dry with continued warming as weak
surface high pressure draped across Florida from the western
Atlantic slides slowly southeast. Not much going on aloft either
as mid-level ridging extending from Mexico across the Gulf and the
southeast US, and a weak trough to our east, remain in place. A
loose pressure gradient will result in light southeasterly to
southerly winds today, and southwesterly to westerly winds
Saturday as the high slips south. Near equal sea breezes today
will collide across the far interior later this evening, while the
more westerly flow Saturday will favor the west coast sea breeze,
which should reach into the western interior in the late
afternoon, and result in a collision a little farther east. Have
continued potentially generous narrow band of 20 pct rain and
lightning storm chances along this evening`s sea breeze collision.
Saturday looks more favorable for showers and storms thanks to
higher moisture and some mid-level energy swinging through the
pattern, resulting in 20-40 pct PoPs ahead of and along the sea
breeze collision in the late afternoon to evening. Models show
SBCAPE increasing to 1,000-2,000 J/kg, and while DCAPE is an eye-
popping +1,200 J/kg, the dry air that`s pushing those numbers up
will also be a hurdle to deep convection. So while it will be an
uphill climb for updrafts, stronger storms that manage for develop
will be capable of gusty winds, occasional to frequent cloud to
ground lightning, and heavy downpours.

Well above normal temperatures continue another slow, upward
trend, reaching the L-M90s inland and the M-U80s along the coastal
corridor today, increasing a bit Saturday to the M-U90s inland
(which will once again flirt with record high temperatures), and
the U80-L90s along the coastal corridor. Peak afternoon heat
indices in the 90s today and U90s-L100s Saturday.

Sunday-Thursday (Previous Discussion)...Much of this period
continues to be highlighted by increasing temperatures. Mid-level
ridging will extend across the GoMex to across the FL peninsula
into early next week as any decent shortwave energy remains north
of the area until mid next week, when some additional weak energy
aloft does push south across the area by late Tue. At the surface,
a rather weak pressure gradient remains in place thru the holiday
weekend. Medium range models hint at a potential frontal boundary
getting forced south into the area late Tue/Wed, stalling across
south-central FL on Thu. Tue-Thu will also have the highest PoP
chances over the extended, generally 20-40pct, but nothing
widespread in nature. Otherwise, drier than normal conditions will
largely continue through the rest of the holiday weekend, with
only a slight chance (20pct) for showers and lightning storms
forecast for Sun, mainly across the interior.

Highs mostly in the 90s areawide each day with maxes in the M-U90s
for many inland areas at least thru Tue and/or Wed. Heat indices
in the L-M100s each day thru at least Tue, with some U100s
possible Sun-Tue, generally south of Orlando and Melbourne, which
would flirt with Heat Advisory criteria. Conditions will be humid
overnight, with values 70-75F on average for most. Take extra
precaution if participating in outdoor activities this Memorial
Day weekend. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned
areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Sea breeze collision will occur imminently west of MCO and any
resulting isold SHRA may encroach on MCO/ISM through 02Z as
steering flow is toward the east. Winds will become light and
variable overnight, becoming SW at 4-7 KT after sunrise. The east
coast sea breeze will form a little later than today with winds
turning E/SE at all coastal terminals starting with SUA and
zippering north to DAB btwn 16Z-18Z. A better chance for isolated
to scattered SHRA/TSRA Sat aftn along the sea breeze and resulting
collisions inland from the coast. Have maintained VCSH starting
at 19Z and VCTS starting a VCTS at MCO and expanded that to TIX-
SUA in the latest TAF package as westerly steering flow will bring
convection toward the east coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Rest of Today-Saturday...Weak high pressure extending across
Florida from the western Atlantic slides southeast, continuing hot
but otherwise favorable boating conditions. Onshore winds around
10 kts from the sea breeze ease to 5-10 kts and veer through the
night, becoming WSW-SW early Saturday morning, then turning
onshore around 10 kts again Saturday afternoon with the sea
breeze. Seas 2-3 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning
storms are forecast to push offshore Saturday evening and continue
eastward across the local Atlantic waters through the early
overnight.

Sun-Tue (Modified Previous Discussion)...Continued favorable
boating conditions, though it will be increasingly hot and any
shower/lightning storm chances will only be ISOLD to WDLY SCT -
most likely across the Gulf Stream. Winds again become onshore
each late morning and afternoon with daily sea breeze regime
(10-15 kts along the coast), but will veer a light offshore
component or become light/variable each overnight period. Seas
mostly AOB 3 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  92  71  93 /   0  20  10  10
MCO  72  96  73  97 /  10  30  10  20
MLB  72  90  73  91 /   0  30  20  20
VRB  71  92  72  93 /   0  40  20  20
LEE  73  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  20
SFB  72  95  73  96 /  10  30  10  20
ORL  73  96  74  97 /  10  30  10  20
FPR  70  93  71  93 /   0  40  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly