688
FXUS62 KMLB 070840
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
440 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Key Messages:

-Isolated to scattered lightning storms this afternoon, capable of
 gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall

-Increasing temperatures this weekend with heat index values
 100-107+ and a risk for heat exhaustion or heat stroke

-Coverage of lightning storms increases next week, timing and
 rainfall amounts remain less certain

Today-Tonight...With temperatures in the mid 70s and dew points
not too far behind, it feels quite muggy stepping out the door.
Skies are mostly clear, winds are light, and GOES-derived PW range
from 1.5" across most locations to 1.7" along the Martin/Palm
Beach County line. Hot, humid conditions are forecast to continue
today with highs approaching the mid 90s and heat indices topping
out around 100-107F. Make sure to practice heat safety, staying
hydrated and taking frequent breaks in shaded or air-conditioned
spaces.

Relief from the heat in the form of scattered showers and
lightning storms is possible again this afternoon through early
evening. Unlike yesterday, model guidance suggests a bit of warming
in the mid levels, suggesting less support for a hail and
damaging wind threat. However, the risk for a strong to severe
storm cannot be completely ruled out, especially where water-loaded
downdrafts could quickly produce strong to locally damaging wind
gusts. Locations along the sea breeze collision will see the
highest rain chance, generally near and just west of I-95. The
main timeframe for storms is after 3 or 4 PM, ending an hour or
two after sunset. Storms will drift toward the east coast before
dissipating or moving offshore.

This Weekend...Lower coverage of showers and storms is anticipated,
as a surface boundary dissipates across north Florida, mid level
ridging builds over the state, and relatively drier air pushes
south. PW should remain in the upper 1" range to nearly 2" from
Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast, with values around 1.3" to
1.6" farther north. This means the best chance for rain will be
across southern counties Saturday and Sunday (30-50 PoP). The
bigger story will be the heat and humidity, which will combine to
produce heat index values near Heat Advisory criteria (especially
south). The risk for heat-related illness increases as a result,
so residents and visitors are encouraged to stay well-hydrated,
while taking frequent breaks in shade and air conditioning.
Record-breaking high temperatures may occur at a couple of sites
through the weekend and perhaps even on Monday. Overnight lows
will stay warm in the 70s.

Monday-Thursday...Monday stays hot with temperatures reaching the
mid to upper 90s and heat index values spanning the 100s, though
rain chances do increase as greater moisture advects north across
the state. Ridging begins to break down, also, as a surface front
approaches the Panhandle. 850mb-500mb SW winds increase Tuesday
and Wednesday, supporting scattered to numerous showers and
lightning storms through the day, perhaps lingering into the
nighttime hours. Medium-range solutions are spread far and wide,
with the GFS surging moisture north across the FL peninsula and
supporting a wide swath of 2-4" of rainfall through Wednesday. In
contrast, the ECMWF keeps rain totals below 1" here through
Thursday morning. Any rain will be beneficial to the ongoing
drought conditions, but just how much remains to be seen.

Daytime temperatures will largely depend on the presence (or
absence) of rainfall and associated cloud cover. For now, the
forecast leans toward the NBME and cooler side of guidance, with
the ECMWF several degrees warmer. Expect highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions outside of
isolated showers and lightning storms. Winds back to the ESE as
the east coast breeze increases to around 10-15 kt. Seas generally
2 ft. Locally higher winds and seas are possible in the vicinity
of storms.

Saturday-Tuesday...Lower rain chances this weekend and light
surface winds are expected, prior to sea breeze development. In
the afternoon SSE winds 10-15 kt behind the breeze. Winds increase
up to 17 kt Sun. and Mon. night but remain around 15 kt or less
during the day. Seas 2-3 ft. Rain and lightning storms increase in
coverage next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Today-This Weekend...Sensitive fire weather conditions persist due
to drought conditions and the potential for new fire starts due to
lightning strikes. Minimum relative humidity values fall to the
mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday, before moisture increases across the
state next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period outside of convection. SCT
TSRA expected mainly between 20Z-03Z, but can`t rule out ISO
SHRA/TSRA as early as 18Z INVOF the inland terminals. Held off on
TEMPOs with the 06Z package. PoPs chances just a little too low,
and guidance hasn`t been consistent with location of convection.
Light SW-W winds once again favor the WCSB, forecast to reach
KLEE ~18Z, and KMCO/KISM ~20Z if TSRA doesn`t develop first,
increasing winds to ~10 kts. ECSB reaches the coastal terminals
between 16Z to the south and 20Z to the north, shifting winds to
E-SE 10-15 kts. Winds become light/VRB after 02Z Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  74  95  75 /  40  30  20  10
MCO  95  76  97  77 /  50  20  30  20
MLB  93  74  93  75 /  50  40  20  20
VRB  93  74  94  75 /  50  40  30  30
LEE  96  76  97  76 /  40  10  20  10
SFB  95  75  97  76 /  50  30  20  10
ORL  96  76  97  78 /  50  20  30  10
FPR  94  73  94  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley