561
FXUS62 KMLB 070601
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
201 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period outside of convection. SCT
TSRA expected mainly between 20Z-03Z, but can`t rule out ISO
SHRA/TSRA as early as 18Z INVOF the inland terminals. Held off on
TEMPOs with the 06Z package. PoPs chances just a little too low,
and guidance hasn`t been consistent with location of convection.
Light SW-W winds once again favor the WCSB, forecast to reach
KLEE ~18Z, and KMCO/KISM ~20Z if TSRA doesn`t develop first,
increasing winds to ~10 kts. ECSB reaches the coastal terminals
between 16Z to the south and 20Z to the north, shifting winds to
E-SE 10-15 kts. Winds become light/VRB after 02Z Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Current-Overnight...Active late afternoon/evening across ECFL with
numerous showers and lightning storms (strong/svr) due to intense
surface heating, moisture, disturbance aloft, and many boundary
collisions. There were numerous reports of hail, strong wind gusts,
and locally heavy rainfall, especially from Osceola through Orange
and Seminole counties. Some of this activity has made its way back
eastward toward the Volusia/Brevard coasts. While still some strong
storms around, activity will wind down through mid to late evening
pushing out across the local coastal waters. The overnight period
will remain dry over land. Mild and humid conditions continue
with lows overnight in the L-M70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Friday-Monday...Boating conditions remain generally favorable into
late week and through the weekend. Weak front will approach north
Florida late Friday and settle near to just north of the waters into
the weekend before it gradually fades. This will shift the ridge
axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic southward through the
period, with winds generally out of the W/SW each day backing to the
S/SE each afternoon with the developing east coast sea breeze. Wind
speeds 5-10 knots in the morning, increase up to 10-15 knots in the
afternoon and evening, with seas 1-3 feet.

Scattered offshore moving showers and storms will continue to be
possible into Friday afternoon and early evening, but shower and
storm chances begin to decrease north of the Cape into the
weekend before rising once again into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Thursday-Monday...Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist
across the area Fri-Mon, with sensitive to near critical fire
weather conditions into the weekend, as hot conditions prevail and
ongoing drought conditions persist. Minimum RH values fall to near
40 percent Friday afternoon. Additional scattered showers and
storms are possible Friday afternoon. An increase in lightning
strikes with this activity, may lead to additional brush fires.

Conditions then trend a little drier into the weekend, with Min RH
values falling to the mid 30s to low 40s across the interior on
Saturday and into the mid to upper 30s across the interior on
Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will again be
possible each afternoon, but overall coverage is forecast to be
lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  74  95  75 /  40  30  20  10
MCO  95  76  97  77 /  50  20  30  20
MLB  93  74  93  75 /  50  40  20  20
VRB  93  74  94  75 /  50  40  30  30
LEE  96  76  97  76 /  40  10  20  10
SFB  95  75  97  76 /  50  30  20  10
ORL  96  76  97  78 /  50  20  30  10
FPR  94  73  94  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley