592
FXUS62 KMLB 041932
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
332 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

- Sensitive fire weather conditions continue, with a moderate
  drought

- Shower and storm chances increase mid to late week, with
  isolated strong storms possible Thursday

- Temperatures rise to near records late week into the weekend,
  with Heat Index values in the 100 to 108 degree range

Rest of Today-Wednesday...High pressure lingers over the western
Atlantic through the period, with the ridge axis extending into the
Florida peninsula. Onshore flow will persist into Wednesday,
increasing to around 10-15mph, with gusts up to 20mph, each
afternoon behind the sea breeze. Easterly winds will help to keep
the east coast sea breeze dominant today, with the sea breeze
collision occurring over the western half of the peninsula. But,
winds will begin to veer east-southeasterly Wednesday afternoon,
finally allowing for a collision that is more centralized over the
peninsula. PoPs respond accordingly, remaining only around 20-30%
this afternoon, but becoming up to 40% Wednesday afternoon. The
highest chances will be over the interior and along and inland from
the Treasure Coast. Forecast lapse rates remain modest, with 500mb
temperatures around -8C, so the main threats with any storms will be
lightning strikes and gusty winds. High temperatures will increase
through the period, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s along the
coast and mid-90s inland Wednesday afternoon.

Any convection that manages to develop will diminish over the
interior in the evening hours, with dry conditions then expected for
the overnight. The exception will be a slight chance for showers
along the Treasure Coast tonight, especially towards morning.
Overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight becoming the
lower to mid-70s Wednesday night.

Thursday-Friday...The ridge axis shifts father southward on
Thursday, as a mid/upper level trough digs into the Southeast US.
Southeasterly surface winds and westerly flow aloft are forecast to
produce a more dominant west coast sea breeze, leading to a
collision over the eastern side of the peninsula Thursday and
Friday. Higher PoPs finally creep into the forecast for Thursday,
becoming up to 50-70% over central portions of the forecast area.
Some slightly drier air filters into the area on Friday, so have
limited PoPs to around 30-40% at this time. Steeper lapse rates and
500mb temperatures around -9 to -10C could support a few strong
storms Thursday, with gusty winds and small hail possible. High
temperatures will continue to increase, rising into the mid to upper
90s over the interior and lower to mid-90s along the coast. Heat
indices 100-105 will become increasingly widespread. Overnight lows
in the lower to mid-70s.

Saturday-Early Next Week...PoPs continue around 30-40% this weekend
and into Monday, as a weak cool front drops southward into the area
and lingers. This pattern will allow for westerly flow to prevail
over the area. High temperatures will become well above normal, as
they reach the mid to upper 98s area-wide. Several daily record
temperatures will likely be threatened during this time. Into the
middle of next week, models differ on the southern extent of yet
another cool front, which will have a large influence on the pattern
thereafter. However, the good news is that rain and thunderstorm
chances look to greatly increase. However, will need to monitor over
the coming days for changes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions will persist into this
weekend. However, daily shower and lightning storm chances are
forecast, with increased chances of offshore-moving activity late
week into the weekend. Otherwise, winds remaining under 15kts as
onshore flow veers southeasterly Thursday, then southerly Friday,
and offshore into the weekend. Seas 1-3ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Sensitive fire weather conditions persist into late week, as high
pressure lingers over the western Atlantic. Limited shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue through Wednesday, with just
isolated to scattered PoPs. The highest chances will remain over the
interior and along and inland from the Treasure Coast. Onshore flow
will begin to veer southeasterly into Thursday, allowing for the
west coast sea breeze to advance farther inland. This will lead to a
sea breeze collision that is more centered along the Florida
peninsula, or perhaps even on the eastern half of the area. Thus,
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday, becoming up
to 40-70%. However, widespread beneficial rainfall does not look
likely, despite an increase in PoPs, so overall dry conditions are
forecast to persist into next week.

The east coast sea breeze will continue to enhance winds each
afternoon, becoming 10-15mph behind it, with occasional gusts to
around 20mph. Min RH will remain above critical levels, but is
forecast to still fall to 40-45% over the interior. Meanwhile, high
temperatures will continue to increase, with widespread heat indices
between 100-105 by Thursday. High temperatures themselves are
forecast to be in the upper 80s to mid-90s Wednesday and the lower
to mid-90s Thursday, with some upper 90s possible over the interior.
Good to excellent dispersion each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Predominant easterly flow regime will keep most shower activity to
the west of the terminals this afternoon, requiring only VCSH at
LEE and lingering onshore-moving showers near FPR. Winds become
light/variable late tonight, returning to E at 10-15 KT on
Wednesday. A 20% chance for showers for VRB- FPR- SUA after 06Z;
this confidence is too low for mention in TAF at this time.
Somewhat better coverage of storms possible for Orlando Metro on
Wednesday, beyond 05/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  89  72  94 /  10  20  20  40
MCO  72  94  74  95 /  10  30  20  50
MLB  74  89  74  92 /  10  20  20  50
VRB  73  89  73  92 /  20  20  20  40
LEE  73  94  75  95 /  20  40  20  30
SFB  71  94  74  96 /  10  30  20  50
ORL  73  94  75  96 /  10  30  20  50
FPR  72  89  72  92 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Heil