333
FXUS62 KMLB 041124
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
724 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 631 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Mainly VFR again today. Pattern remains similar to Monday, with
rain chances remaining below normal. Isolated showers over the
coastal waters will move slowly northwest, and a few may be able
to push onshore, mainly south of MLB this morning. Then isolated
to scattered showers and a few storms will be possible as the east
coast sea breeze moves inland. However, greatest potential for
convection will be across west central FL later today into this
evening with the sea breeze collision.

Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any showers or storms
that can develop. However, with rain chances remaining so low and
CAM guidance not overly enthusiastic with development, will keep
tempo groups out of the TAFs. Will keep VCSH along the Treasure
Coast (KVRB-KSUA) through early afternoon and at KLEE at 21-02Z
with the sea breeze passage.

Easterly winds around 5-10 knots will again increase to around 10-14
knots with some higher gusts to 15-20 knots possible behind the
inland moving east coast sea breeze. Winds then diminish to
5 knot or less overnight tonight.



&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Key Messages:

- Fire sensitive conditions continue with a moderate drought

- Shower and storm chances increase mid to late week with
  isolated strong storms forecast Thursday

- Temperatures rise to near records late week with Heat Index
  values in the 100 to 108 degree range

Currently-Today... High pressure centered to the northeast of
Florida over the western Atlantic continues to produce onshore flow
over east central Florida. Current local radar imagery shows mostly
dry conditions over east central Florida with isolated showers over
the local Atlantic. Winds are forecast to increase into the
afternoon from the east at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. The NBM
is persistent in generating high rain chances for much of this week
compared to MOS and HREF guidance. The greatest forcing continues to
be over west Florida, therefore PoPs have been reduced closer to MOS
guidance. Isolated diurnally driven showers are forecast with a few
lighting strikes possible (PoPs ~ 20-30%) over the the western
interior, as well as the Treasure Coast this afternoon and early
evening with chances dwindling after sunset. Afternoon highs in the
mid 80s to near 90 degrees are forecast near the coast and the low
to mid 90s over the interior to the west of I-95. Mostly clear skies
are expected to become partly sunny into the afternoon.

Tonight... Rain chances will decrease after sunset with isolated
showers and lighting storms (PoPs ~ 20-30%) forecast near the
Treasure Coast and the local Atlantic waters. Low temperatures are
forecast to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s under mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday-Friday... A similar forecast to the previous couple of
days is expected with the greatest forcing to the west of central
Florida. PoPs have been reduced again with MOS and HREF guidance
much lower than the NBM. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning
storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and early evening,
however much of east central Florida will likely remain dry.
Moisture (PWATs in the 1.8-2.1" range) is forecast to increase
Thursday ahead of a shortwave trough that`s expected to track across
east central Florida into the late afternoon and evening. The 00z
guidance shows moderate instability and cooling temperatures aloft
at 500mb (-8 to -9C), as well as steepening mid level lapse rates
and 20-30kts of 0-6km shear which would be supportive of a strong
storm or two Thursday afternoon and into the evening. The main
hazards associated with any strong storms that develop will be
occasional to frequent lighting strikes, wind gusts to 40mph, small
hail, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Drier air will filter in
on Friday behind the trough with isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms forecast in the afternoon. Onshore flow will become
less predominate into Thursday with west-southwest flow increasing
into Friday. West to southwest winds are forecast to back east-
southeast at around 10-15mph into the afternoon Thursday near the
coast and slightly west of I-95.

Afternoon highs on Wednesday are forecast to reach the upper 80s
to low 90s near the coast and the low to mid 90s inland with heat
index values in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Temperatures will
continue to increase into with late week with highs in the low to
mid 90s Thursday and the mid to upper 90s Friday (near records)
with heat index values as high as 100-108 degrees. Lows are
expected to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Saturday-Monday... Offshore flow will persist Saturday. Diurnally
sea breeze driven isolated to scattered showers and lighting
storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon Saturday and
Sunday as winds back onshore near the coast and slightly west of
I-95. Shower and storm chances are expected to increase into next
week with the GFS and CMC in agreement that low pressure will
move northeast over south-central or southern Florida in the
afternoon and evening. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the
low to upper 90s with heat index values in the 98-107 degree
range. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s are forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Currently-Today... High pressure centered to the northeast of
Florida will continue to produce onshore flow over east central
Florida. Favorable boating conditions are expected. Onshore east
winds will increase into the afternoon at 10-14kts. Isolated to
scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast this afternoon
and into the early overnight hours. Seas are forecast to build to
1-3ft with up to 4ft over the offshore Brevard county waters.

Wednesday-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
outside of showers and lightning storms. Isolated to scattered
showers and lightning storms are forecast into the afternoon and
evening Wednesday and Friday. Scattered showers and lighting
storms are forecast Thursday which will be capable of occasional
to frequent cloud to water lighting strikes, wind gusts to 40mph,
and small hail. East winds will increase into the afternoon at
8-14kts Wednesday and then veer south-southwest overnight
Wednesday night and Thursday night before backing onshore into
Thursday afternoon. Offshore winds are expected to back south-
southeast Friday and Saturday afternoons at 10-15kts. Seas are
forecast to build to 1-3ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  71  89  72 /  10  10  30  10
MCO  91  71  94  73 /  20  10  40  20
MLB  87  74  89  74 /  20  10  30  20
VRB  88  72  89  73 /  20  20  30  20
LEE  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  40  20
SFB  91  71  94  73 /  20  10  40  10
ORL  92  73  94  75 /  20  10  40  20
FPR  88  71  89  72 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Weitlich