090
FXUS62 KMLB 271121
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
721 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions prevailing, with another generally dry day forecast.
A few showers or lightning storms will be possible along and inland
from the Treasure Coast this afternoon, but confidence on timing and
coverage is too low to include a VCSH/TS mention at this time.
Light westerly flow this morning will back southeasterly this
afternoon along the coast, as the sea breeze develops. Wind gusts up
to 20kts will be possible behind the sea breeze, mainly along the
Treasure Coast. The sea breeze is not forecast to make it quite as
far inland as the last several days, meeting the west coast breeze
east of MCO. After sunset, light winds will once again veer
offshore.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Afternoon temperatures rising into the mid 90s to near 100
  today, with peak heat indices in the 100 to 105 range.

- A weak frontal boundary will approach the area on Tuesday,
  leading to increasing rain and storm chances.

- Diurnal convection will return to east central Florida on
  Wednesday and is forecast to continue into the weekend.

Today-Tonight...Mid-level ridging will continue to extend towards
the Florida peninsula, with the surface high remaining across the
area. As a result, mostly dry conditions are forecast across east
central Florida once again today. Isolated showers and an
isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out across the Treasure
Coast and near Lake Okeechobee this afternoon, but confidence in
this continues to remain low. The east coast sea breeze is
forecast to develop, but guidance continues to keep it relatively
pinned to the coast due to stronger flow aloft. Skies will remain
mostly clear today, with temperatures climbing into the mid 90s
to near 100 in some areas. Peak heat indices will stay between 100
to 105, so be sure to take breaks in the shade or an air
conditioned building and stay hydrated today if outside for
extended periods of time. Conditions will remain mostly dry across
east central into the overnight hours, with shower and storm
activity expected to increase across the local Atlantic waters.
Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 70s, with conditions
remaining humid.

Tuesday...A mid-level trough will sweep across the southeastern
US, bringing a weak frontal boundary towards the Florida
peninsula. Locally, moisture is forecast to increase, with PWATs
reaching 1.6 to 1.9". Rain chances are forecast to increase to 40
to 50 percent across east central Florida, with the combination of
the weak front and the east coast sea breeze moving inland being
the two main forcing mechanisms to help get things going. Isolated
storms will also be possible with this activity,and a few strong
storms certainly cannot be ruled out. Instability will be
plentiful across the area, with modeled SBCAPE values 1000 to 1500
J/kg and dewpoints well into the upper 60s to low 70s. Modeled
DCAPE values are also impressive, but this is primarily due to a
dry layer between 700 to 500 mb, which could end up being a
limiting factor in storm development. Additionally, 500 mb
temperatures look to sit around -9C on Tuesday. In summary, this
means any storms that do develop will be capable of producing
occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 40 to 50
mph, heavy downpours, and even small hail. Activity will diminish
into the overnight hours, as showers and storms move offshore,
with the frontal boundary stalling across northern Florida.

Afternoon temperatures will continue to be warm on Tuesday, with
highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. Peak heat indices will remain
between 100 to 105. Overnight conditions will remain warm and
humid, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Sunday...Quasi-zonal flow in the mid-levels will persist
from the middle of the week into the weekend, with no real
dominant feature present locally at the surface outside of the
decaying frontal boundary. As a result, steering and surface flow
will remain light across the area, with a plume of moisture
lingering locally. Temperatures will continue to climb into the
90s through the remainder of the work week, with afternoon highs
only reaching the 80s this upcoming weekend. The temperature
gradient between the peninsula and local Atlantic waters will
continue to be enough to trigger the development of the east coast
sea breeze, with light steering flow aloft allowing the sea
breeze to move inland. A sea breeze collision is forecast to occur
each afternoon in the extended forecast, with PoPs remaining
between 20 to 50 percent. Isolated storm development will also be
possible, especially as a result of the sea breeze collision. Any
storms that do develop may be capable of producing lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Activity will diminish
each evening into the overnight hours, with continued shower and
storm development possible across the local Atlantic waters. Skies
will become mostly clear each night, with lows remaining in the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions will be present across
the local Atlantic waters today with seas between 1 to 3 feet and
south-southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. The east coast sea breeze will
develop, causing wind to become south-southeast later this
afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through today, with
increasing rain and storm chances expected into the overnight hours.
Any storms that develop tonight may be capable of producing
occasional to frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours.

Tuesday-Friday...Favorable boating conditions are forecast to
continue through the remainder of the forecast period, with seas
generally between1 to 3 feet and winds remaining below 15 knots.
Wind direction will vary through the period, with winds becoming
onshore each afternoon due to the development of the sea breeze. A
weak frontal boundary is forecast to approach the local Atlantic
waters on Tuesday, with increasing rain and storm chances forecast.
Wednesday through the remainder of the work week, rain and storm
chances will remain in the forecast across the local waters. Any
storms that develop will be capable of producing lightning strikes,
gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Locally higher seas may also be
possible near stronger storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Minimum RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range across the interior
will lead to sensitive fire weather conditions today. Winds are
forecast to remain below 15 mph across the area. The heat continues,
with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to around 100 and peak heat
indices in the 100 to 105 range. Fire conditions will improve
slightly on Tuesday due to increasing moisture, but storms and
associated lightning strikes could lead to some concerns. Minimum RH
values will then drop back into the 35 to 45 percent range through
the remainder of the week, with some areas dropping to 30 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  73  93  71 /   0  10  40  20
MCO  97  75  95  73 /   0  10  40  20
MLB  94  75  92  73 /  10  10  40  30
VRB  95  74  94  72 /  10  10  40  40
LEE  94  75  94  73 /   0  10  50  10
SFB  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  50  20
ORL  97  76  95  75 /   0  10  40  20
FPR  96  73  95  71 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Leahy