932
FXUS62 KMLB 060622
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
222 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 154 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions prevail through 20Z. Light S-SW flow will favor
the WCSB, reaching KLEE by 19Z and shifting winds to W at 10-15
kts. ECSB develops around 16Z, shifting winds at coastal
terminals to ESE-SE near 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Sea
breezes collide INVOF the I-4 terminals around 20Z, producing
SCT- WIDE TSRA. CIGS should remain VFR, but VIS reductions to MVFR
or lower likely in +TSRA. Added TEMPOs for TSRA impacts at or
after 20Z to TAFs from KISM north. Keeping KTIX-KSUA VCTS for now,
but will reevaluate TEMPOs for KTIX-KMLB in next package.
TSRA/SHRA clearing or pushing offshore by 00Z to the north and 03Z
to the south.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Current-Tonight...WDLY SCT convection this evening N/W of I-4.
Activity on a diminishing trend now, but there could be some ISOLD
showers/storms along (and west of) the Kissimmee River into mid-late
evening as the HRRR suggests but low confidence here. Any remaining
storm threats will be occasional lightning strikes, brief gusty
winds and locally heavy downpours. Conditions otherwise dry
overnight. Onshore flow will become light/variable later this
evening and overnight. Conditions remain warm and humid with
eventual mins in the U60s to L-M70s areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High pressure will move farther seaward late week, ahead of a
series of weak cool fronts. Minimal PoPs today and tonight over
the Atlantic waters will increase Thursday into Thursday evening,
as an upper level trough crosses the area. A few storms Thursday
could be strong to marginally severe. While daily shower and
lightning storm chances will continue through the weekend, PoPs
decrease to around 20-30% or less for much of the area (~40% for
the Treasure Coast waters Friday). By next weekend, a pattern
change looks to bring much higher chances for showers and storms.

Outside of convection, onshore flow breaks down into tonight as
the ridge axis shifts south of the local waters. Prevailing
offshore winds in the morning hours will back southerly to
southeasterly each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Winds
will remain under 15kts through Saturday, but are forecast to
increase to around 15kts Sunday and Monday, especially over the
waters south of Cape Canaveral. Seas 1-3ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions will persist
into this weekend, despite high pressure moving farther seaward
into the western Atlantic. Rain and thunderstorm chances remain
modest today, but will increase Thursday, as onshore flow breaks
down and the sea breeze collision occurs over the eastern half
of the peninsula Thursday afternoon. However, while the chance
for precipitation will increase, widespread wetting rainfall does
not appear likely. In addition to an increase in lightning strikes,
this will keep fire weather conditions very sensitive. Into the
weekend, rain chances will once again become limited. But, a
pattern change, with much higher coverage of showers and storms,
looks increasingly likely next week. Some storms Thursday could
be strong, with gusty winds and hail.

Above normal temperatures will keep min RH values between 40-45%
for much of the area through Friday. Then, drier air this weekend
is forecast to lead to near-critical to critical RH, with min RH
falling to as low as 30-35% over the interior. High temperatures
will reach the upper 90s into the weekend, with some daily
record temperatures possible. Heat indices will be in the 100-107
degree range. Very good to excellent dispersion is forecast
Thursday and Friday, with control issues likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  72  94  73 /  60  30  50  10
MCO  97  74  95  76 /  60  30  50  10
MLB  93  72  92  74 /  50  40  50  20
VRB  93  72  93  73 /  50  40  50  20
LEE  96  75  94  76 /  50  20  40  10
SFB  97  74  96  75 /  60  20  50  10
ORL  97  75  95  76 /  60  30  50  10
FPR  94  71  94  73 /  50  40  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley