Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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785 FXUS62 KMLB 010912 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 512 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Key Messages: - Breezy East winds combined with dry conditions will produce a fire weather sensitive day today. - Poor to Hazardous Boating Conditions Today. Today...High pressure will slide E-SE and off the Carolina coast late in the day. Clockwise circulation around this high pressure and its assocd pressure gradient will produce breezy East winds, 15-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph across EC FL. Current temps holding in the upper 70s along the coast due to the breezy onshore flow but max temps will only reach the mid 80s there, a typically small diurnal range in such flow regimes. Over the interior, max temps will reach the upper 80s/near 90, very seasonable for the first day of June and a respite from the recent heat. There is some moisture trapped below a subsidence inversion around 850 mb. This will promote scattered marine stratocu pushing onshore that pancakes beneath the base of the inversion. Brief periods of mostly cloudy skies are possible. And cannot rule out a few sprinkles falling out of these clouds but measurable precip is not expected. Sun...The pressure gradient eases as the high center moves seaward away from the area so not quite as breezy but east flow will continue which will push the sea breeze steadily inland. The dry airmass will also shift eastward and allow some moistening from the west. As a result, rain chances have increased some with the best chance for scattered showers and storms across southern sections as early as Sun morning along the Treasure coast. Sufficient moisture now looks to exist over the interior in the aftn to generate 30-40% coverage of showers/storms. This is about 20% below NBM PoPs which are typically too high. Max temps remain seasonable, just a degree or so warmer than today. Mon-Fri...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle southward from north FL Mon to south FL Thu-Fri. Moisture looks fairly limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue and beyond. Such low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. && .MARINE... Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will slide east-southeast and offshore the Carolina coast this afternoon, then seaward over the western Atlantic. A trailing ridge axis will extend westward across north Florida into early next week. Fresh East winds around this high pressure will produce poor to hazardous conditions today then conditions will gradually improve Sunday through Tuesday as the trailing ridge axis settles across north FL and eases the easterly pressure gradient which will still support 10-15 kts. A small craft advisory remains in effect for the Brevard waters until 10 am and the Treasure coast waters (south of Sebastian Inlet) until 10 pm this evening. Seas will peak at 6-7 ft in the Gulf Stream south of the Cape today. Seas will fall below 5 ft offshore Sun. Seas 3-4 ft Mon and 2-3 ft by Wed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Mainly dry and breezy/gusty conditions will produce a fire weather sensitive day today. Min RH values will hover near 35% across Lake county and adjacent portions of western Orange and northwest Osceola. Min RH values will trend higher toward the coast, holding between 45% and 55% there. But East winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will produce Very Good to Excellent dispersions. Combined with dry fuels, any new or ongoing fires may spread rapidly. This will be a concern even near the coast even though RH values will be slightly higher. On Sunday, the onshore winds will decrease some and the dry airmass will modify allowing min RH values to hold about 10% higher than today. There will also be a better chance for showers and storms especially south of Orlando. Rain/storm chances should remain below normal during the early to mid next week but critically low RH values are not forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 148 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR and dry conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Northeast winds at 4-8kts inland and 10-12kts along the coast are forecast to increase after 12Z-15Z with gusts to 20-26kts this afternoon. Winds will gradually diminish into the late evening and overnight hours from the east. SCT clouds (potentially BKN mainly near the coast) at around 040-050kft are forecast this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 71 86 70 / 0 0 30 20 MCO 88 70 89 71 / 0 0 40 20 MLB 85 73 86 73 / 10 20 50 30 VRB 86 72 86 72 / 10 20 50 40 LEE 89 70 91 72 / 10 10 30 10 SFB 88 70 89 71 / 0 0 30 10 ORL 88 71 90 72 / 0 0 40 10 FPR 86 71 86 71 / 10 30 50 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ552-572. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Fehling