Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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399 FXUS62 KMLB 242350 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 750 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Sea breeze collision will occur imminently west of MCO and any resulting isold SHRA may encroach on MCO/ISM through 02Z as steering flow is toward the east. Winds will become light and variable overnight, becoming SW at 4-7 KT after sunrise. The east coast sea breeze will form a little later than today with winds turning E/SE at all coastal terminals starting with SUA and zippering north to DAB btwn 16Z-18Z. A better chance for isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA Sat aftn along the sea breeze and resulting collisions inland from the coast. Have maintained VCSH starting at 19Z and VCTS starting a VCTS at MCO and expanded that to TIX- SUA in the latest TAF package as westerly steering flow will bring convection toward the east coast. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Key Messages... -Potential record heat through the holiday weekend as highs climb well into the 90s, and a few locations approach 100. -A lightning storm or two this evening can`t be ruled out, then chances including the potential for stronger storms increase this weekend. Rest of Today-Saturday...Mostly dry with continued warming as weak surface high pressure draped across Florida from the western Atlantic slides slowly southeast. Not much going on aloft either as mid-level ridging extending from Mexico across the Gulf and the southeast US, and a weak trough to our east, remain in place. A loose pressure gradient will result in light southeasterly to southerly winds today, and southwesterly to westerly winds Saturday as the high slips south. Near equal sea breezes today will collide across the far interior later this evening, while the more westerly flow Saturday will favor the west coast sea breeze, which should reach into the western interior in the late afternoon, and result in a collision a little farther east. Have continued potentially generous narrow band of 20 pct rain and lightning storm chances along this evening`s sea breeze collision. Saturday looks more favorable for showers and storms thanks to higher moisture and some mid-level energy swinging through the pattern, resulting in 20-40 pct PoPs ahead of and along the sea breeze collision in the late afternoon to evening. Models show SBCAPE increasing to 1,000-2,000 J/kg, and while DCAPE is an eye- popping +1,200 J/kg, the dry air that`s pushing those numbers up will also be a hurdle to deep convection. So while it will be an uphill climb for updrafts, stronger storms that manage for develop will be capable of gusty winds, occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, and heavy downpours. Well above normal temperatures continue another slow, upward trend, reaching the L-M90s inland and the M-U80s along the coastal corridor today, increasing a bit Saturday to the M-U90s inland (which will once again flirt with record high temperatures), and the U80-L90s along the coastal corridor. Peak afternoon heat indices in the 90s today and U90s-L100s Saturday. Sunday-Thursday (Previous Discussion)...Much of this period continues to be highlighted by increasing temperatures. Mid-level ridging will extend across the GoMex to across the FL peninsula into early next week as any decent shortwave energy remains north of the area until mid next week, when some additional weak energy aloft does push south across the area by late Tue. At the surface, a rather weak pressure gradient remains in place thru the holiday weekend. Medium range models hint at a potential frontal boundary getting forced south into the area late Tue/Wed, stalling across south-central FL on Thu. Tue-Thu will also have the highest PoP chances over the extended, generally 20-40pct, but nothing widespread in nature. Otherwise, drier than normal conditions will largely continue through the rest of the holiday weekend, with only a slight chance (20pct) for showers and lightning storms forecast for Sun, mainly across the interior. Highs mostly in the 90s areawide each day with maxes in the M-U90s for many inland areas at least thru Tue and/or Wed. Heat indices in the L-M100s each day thru at least Tue, with some U100s possible Sun-Tue, generally south of Orlando and Melbourne, which would flirt with Heat Advisory criteria. Conditions will be humid overnight, with values 70-75F on average for most. Take extra precaution if participating in outdoor activities this Memorial Day weekend. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness! && .MARINE... Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Rest of Today-Saturday...Weak high pressure extending across Florida from the western Atlantic slides southeast, continuing hot but otherwise favorable boating conditions. Onshore winds around 10 kts from the sea breeze ease to 5-10 kts and veer through the night, becoming WSW-SW early Saturday morning, then turning onshore around 10 kts again Saturday afternoon with the sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to push offshore Saturday evening and continue eastward across the local Atlantic waters through the early overnight. Sun-Tue (Modified Previous Discussion)...Continued favorable boating conditions, though it will be increasingly hot and any shower/lightning storm chances will only be ISOLD to WDLY SCT - most likely across the Gulf Stream. Winds again become onshore each late morning and afternoon with daily sea breeze regime (10-15 kts along the coast), but will veer a light offshore component or become light/variable each overnight period. Seas mostly AOB 3 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 92 71 93 / 0 20 10 10 MCO 72 96 73 97 / 10 30 10 20 MLB 72 90 73 91 / 0 30 20 20 VRB 71 92 72 93 / 0 40 20 20 LEE 73 94 73 95 / 20 20 10 20 SFB 72 95 73 96 / 10 30 10 20 ORL 73 96 74 97 / 10 30 10 20 FPR 70 93 71 93 / 0 40 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ AVIATION...Kelly