150
FXUS64 KMOB 282346
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
645 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon as high
level clouds traverse the region. Calm or light and variable winds
overnight become northeasterly to easterly at 5 knots Wednesday
morning, shifting southeasterly along the coast in the afternoon.
/22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

An upper trof over the eastern states amplifies a bit through
Wednesday while a series of shortwaves continue to move across the
forecast area within the base of the upper trof. A surface ridge
extending from the northern Plains into the southeast states
shifts a bit eastward through Wednesday. This promotes a primarily
dry northerly surface flow, although the slight movement of the
surface ridge allows for a southerly flow to develop Wednesday
afternoon from near the coast of the western Florida panhandle
into southeast Mississippi, aided by the sea breeze. Deep layer
moisture begins to improve on Wednesday mainly over the western
half of the area which may be sufficient to allow for isolated to
possibly scattered convection to develop in the afternoon over
southeast Mississippi and much of southwestern Alabama along the
weak convergent zone created by the southerly flow. For the rest
of today, have made some minor adjustments to daytime highs and
dewpoint values. For tonight, lows range from the lower 60s well
inland to around 70 at the immediate coast. Highs on Wednesday
look to be mostly in the lower 90s. A moderate risk of rip
currents this afternoon will be followed by a low risk for tonight
and Wednesday. /29

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A broad trough aloft generally remains draped down the East Coast
late in the week with ridging just west of the local area. Subtle
shortwaves pivot across the region between these two features
aloft through that timeframe. Meanwhile, down at the surface, a
front continues to meander over our coastal waters (or right along
the coastline) as a surface high over the Great Lakes spills
south into the region. As the surface high drifts south on Friday,
surface winds begin to take on a southerly component. The ridge
aloft also begins to amplify as it slides overhead by Friday
afternoon. Coverage will be isolated at best on both Thursday and
Friday (generally in the afternoon through early evening hours)
given the combination of daytime heating, weak forcing from the
shortwaves cruising through the region, and the weak surface
boundary wobbling around near the coast.

Coverage of showers and storms begins to increase as we roll into
the weekend. The pattern aloft becomes somewhat chaotic with the
potential for several shortwaves to move around the ridge over
Mexico and pivot through our region. Timing out these individual
features aloft this far into the future is difficult in this
pattern, but it will help to increase rain chances over the weekend
and into early next week. Expect increasing onshore flow leading to
higher moisture levels as the aforementioned surface high drifts
into the western Atlantic early in the weekend. While dewpoints will
increase through this timeframe, daytime highs will be somewhat
cooler given the higher coverage of showers and storms. We don`t
anticipate a washout this weekend nor early next week, but there
will certainly be waves of showers and storms in this active
pattern.

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW Thursday through
Saturday. RCMOS probabilities indicate an increasing likelihood
of the rip current risk increasing to a MODERATE by Sunday and
Monday. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

No impacts are expected through the period with the exception of
higher winds and seas near storms. A light offshore flow develops
tonight then becomes southeasterly on Wednesday. A light to
moderate southeasterly flow prevails for Thursday through Sunday.
/29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  93  69  89  69  88  71  86 /   0  10  10  20  20  20  20  50
Pensacola   71  92  72  88  71  87  73  84 /   0  10  10  10  10  20  20  40
Destin      71  90  74  87  73  87  74  86 /   0  10   0  10  10  20  20  30
Evergreen   63  93  65  90  65  90  67  88 /   0  20  10  10  20  20  20  40
Waynesboro  65  91  66  87  66  89  67  86 /   0  30  20  20  20  30  20  50
Camden      62  91  66  87  65  88  67  86 /   0  20  10  20  20  20  20  40
Crestview   64  94  66  92  66  91  67  89 /   0  10   0  10  10  20  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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