Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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753 FXUS64 KMOB 251900 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Latest water vapor imagery shows upper troughing over the Plains, with weak ridging and zonal flow over much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored over the northeast Gulf, with southerly flow persisting across the local area. Weak shortwaves moving around the northern periphery of the ridge have sparked several MCSs overnight and into today, with outflow boundaries meandering over the southeast. The combination of these outflows, aided by diurnal temp trends and plentiful moisture, has allowed new activity to develop around our northeast zones, though these have generally been short lived. As we head into our peak heating hours, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible, mainly along and north of the US-84 corridor. Any storm that`s able to maintain its updraft strength will be capable of producing small hail and localized wind gusts, but these will be more isolated. Storms lingering into the evening hours will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating, leaving a mild overnight period across the area. Sunday will be another dry and hot day, as the upper ridging amplifies during the day. Daytime highs will warm into the upper 80s along the coast to lower 90s further inland. Max heat index values will near 100 degrees, but should remain below the triple digits for most of the area. Rain chances will be on the low side thanks to the subsidence associated with the amplifying ridge. /73 && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The Memorial Day holiday may be a tad more active, as the ridge begins to flatten and a trough swings into the Mississippi Valley. A cold front associated with its parent surface low will trail southward and into Texas late Sunday night, with this system expected to move eastward during the overnight hours. Rain chances will increase during the afternoon on Monday and may linger into the overnight hours. With the surface cold front and upper trough, we will likely have a bit more lift and shear for organized convection to move into the area, but the coverage of storms should be scattered at best, and the coverage of severe storms will likely remain isolated. The main threats would be brief gusty winds and hail in the stronger storms. The boundary may stall just south of the coastline on Tuesday, which would keep isolated chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how far south and how quickly the front is able to reach, so will maintain isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the boundary is expected to have dissipated with high pressure and upper ridging building back into the area. This will bring hot and dry conditions back to the region, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s /73 && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to persist across the coastal waters through Monday. Winds will be enhanced across inland bay and sounds each afternoon with the seabreeze. A cold front approaches from the north on Monday and will bring the potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms Monday into Tuesday. A brief light offshore flow is expected by Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front moves offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 89 75 90 72 93 68 91 / 0 0 0 30 10 20 10 10 Pensacola 75 86 77 87 75 90 71 88 / 0 0 0 20 10 20 10 10 Destin 76 85 77 86 76 87 72 86 / 0 0 0 20 10 20 10 10 Evergreen 71 91 71 91 68 92 64 90 / 10 0 10 40 20 20 10 10 Waynesboro 71 93 72 93 68 92 65 89 / 10 0 10 40 20 20 10 10 Camden 71 91 72 90 67 90 64 88 / 20 0 10 40 20 20 10 10 Crestview 71 91 70 91 69 93 65 92 / 0 0 0 30 10 20 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob