Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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173 FXUS64 KMOB 241454 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 954 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 954 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A wake low from a remnant MCS moved across the region very early this morning, resulting in winds gusting to 25 to 30 kt over the marine area between 5-7am. This feature has moved well east of the region and winds have returned to a generally light south to southwest flow. Primary update to the marine forecast was to slightly increase seas offshore this morning that resulted from the wake low, with seas 2-3 ft. They should settle back to generally around the 2 ft range this afternoon. The other update was to slightly increase winds across bays and sounds with the afternoon seabreeze...especially at the far north end of Mobile Bay. Also nudged winds up to the 10-15 kt range across the marine area for tonight. For land areas, no significant changes were made to the forecast. We will see a small chance of convection this afternoon into this evening across the far inland forecast area. This area will be influence by a shortwave moving in from the west later this afternoon into this evening. As the shortwave approaches, isolated convection could develop, especially with the presence of a surface theta-e gradient that is present across interior SW AL. MLCAPES will generally be in the 2000-2500 J/kg with deep layer bulk shear of 45-50 kt. If a storm can become established, it could become strong with gusty winds and small hail. However, there is a substantial amount of dry air in the low to mid levels and this could interfere in updraft growth. Any convection that develops this afternoon could linger into the evening hours. After that, it appears the overnight into early Saturday morning will be mainly dry. However, there are uncertainties with the evolution of additional MCS complexes well to our north and west. Will continue to monitor trends and the new guidance coming in this morning. 34/JFB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 652 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024/ ..New AVIATION... AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 652 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Current surface observations reveal a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings across the area. Low cloud bases are expected to lift through this morning with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the day and into the evening. Another round of MVFR ceilings and patchy fog is expected late tonight and early Saturday morning. Southerly to southwesterly winds around 6-13 knots continue today with light southwesterly winds expected tonight. /14 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that patchy fog has developed over portions of south central Alabama and the Florida Panhandle early this morning. This fog could become locally dense at times over the next few hours, but should begin to dissipate around sunrise. Current radar imagery also notes a few very light showers over south central Alabama, but these will continue to weaken as they move east. As we head into the rest of the day, upper level ridging remains in place over the southwestern Gulf and southern Mexico with the northern periphery of the ridge situated along the Gulf Coast. A shortwave currently over southern Arkansas will continue moving eastward and is expected to swing across northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, surface high pressure continues to dominate over the Florida Peninsula with an onshore flow continuing across the local area. The subsident pattern will keep mostly dry and warm conditions in place for today. The exception will be a few isolated showers or storms that may try to develop mainly over interior areas this afternoon and evening as the shortwave progresses north of the area. Patchy fog will be possible again late tonight and early saturday morning over south central Alabama and portions of the Florida Panhandle. Lows will only fall into the lower and middle 70s tonight. Focus then turns to Saturday as the ridging begins to amplify and another shortwave slides along its the northern periphery. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate a complex of storms associated with the shortwave will develop and dive southeastward across northern Mississippi and into central Alabama Saturday morning, before moving into portions of southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon. The southern part of this complex could clip our interior southwest and south central Alabama counties late Saturday morning into the afternoon. Given that there will be plenty of instability (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/Kg) combined with dry mid-levels and decent DCAPE, we could see a few strong or perhaps severe storms on Saturday in these areas with damaging winds being the main concern. SPC has outlooked portions of southwest and south central Alabama in a Marginal Risk on Saturday for this potential. Outside of any convection, it will be rather warm. High temperatures today climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s for most inland areas with middle 80s at the beaches. Saturday is expected to be even warmer as the upper ridging amplifies with highs topping out in the lower 90s and a few spots potentially hitting 94-95 degrees. A low risk of rip currents is expected today and Saturday. /14 SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 An upper level ridge will be centered just west of the area on Saturday with a northwesterly upper level flow. This will result in mostly dry and warm conditions. There is a small possibility of the remnants of an MCS moving around the ridge Saturday into Saturday night mainly affect northeast portions of the region. Nighttime low temperatures each night will range from the lower 70s over most of the interior (a few upper 60s possible) to the mid and upper 70s closer to and along the coast. Daytime highs on Sunday will in the lower 90s, except for mid 80s along the coast. /13 LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The upper ridge breaks down and shifts eastward next week. This will allow a weak cold front to move into the area Monday into Tuesday. This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. This front is expected to push offshore by midweek with a drier airmass moving into the area with rain chances near zero Wednesday and Thursday. Little change in high temps through the week with upper 80s and low 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast. Low temps will cool behind the front with the drier airmass in place. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. /13 MARINE... Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A mainly light onshore flow pattern will continue over the marine area through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Seas remain generally 2 feet or less. Winds will increase slightly Sunday into Monday with a slight building of seas over the Gulf waters as a cold front approaches from the north. /14 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob