848
FXUS64 KMOB 292118
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
418 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A broad upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS, with an
amplified ridge over the Plains and another trough over the Pacific
NW. This will maintain a nearly zonal or slight west-northwest flow
aloft over our area. At the surface, a weak boundary has moved
offshore and is over the Gulf of Mexico to our south. This boundary
will remain nearly stationary and gradually become more diffuse
through Thursday. Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes
region will continue to ridge south to the Gulf coast, with a weak
reinforcing frontal boundary dropping south to the coast by late
Thursday. This boundary, and a series of occasional shortwaves
moving around the base of the upper trough could provide the focus
for some isolated convection across our area, especially interior
counties, just as occurred today. Today`s isolated convection has
primarily been diurnally driven so any lingering storms this evening
will quickly diminish after sunset. Same for Thursday, with any
isolated convection that may form during the day again quickly
diminishing after sunset Thursday evening. Low temperatures tonight
should range from the mid to upper 60s across interior counties and
in the low to mid 70s closer to and along the coast. The heat
continues on Thursday with near normal to slightly above normal
temperatures expected, as highs will range from the lower 80s up
along the Highway 84 corridor (which will be behind reinforcing
front), to the upper 80s and lower 90s southward down to near the I-
10 corridor. A little cooler again down along the beaches (mid to
upper 90s), where moderation from the onshore flow will be most
effective. DS/12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Ridging aloft moves overhead Friday as a trough remains draped down
the East Coast. A surface high settles into the Great Lakes region
late in the work week and surface winds gradually take on more of a
southerly component. Isolated showers and storms are possible Friday
afternoon into the early evening hours as moisture slowly begins to
rebound and a subtle shortwave nudges toward the area. As we roll
into the weekend, the trough aloft digs into the western Atlantic as
the ridge slides east of the area. Several rounds of weak shortwaves
cruise through the generally zonal flow left in the wake of the
ridge this weekend (lingering into Monday). The surface high builds
into the East Coast on Saturday and builds over the western Atlantic
as we head into Sunday. Increasing onshore flow in the lower levels
will usher more moisture into the area, allowing dewpoints to surge
into the 70s each day. Coverage of showers and storms is expected to
be higher each afternoon over the weekend and potentially on Monday
given daytime heating, weak forcing from the shortwaves cruising
overhead, and a weak surface boundary wobbling around near the
coast. The highest coverage on both Saturday and Sunday will be
across southeast Mississippi as the surface boundary likely pushes
inland in that region, providing a focus for storms in the
afternoon. The exact timing of the showers and storms still remains
a bit uncertain given that it hinges on the placement and timing of
the subtle shortwaves moving into the region. We remain in somewhat
of an active pattern through the middle of next week with isolated
showers and storms possible each afternoon.

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW Thursday through Friday
night with a bump to MODERATE on Saturday and Sunday. RCMOS
probabilities indicate the risk will likely remain MODERATE through
at least Tuesday of next week. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A light diurnal wind flow, offshore at night and onshore during the
afternoon, will continue into Thursday morning, but flow become more
predominately east to southeasterly Friday through Sunday and then
more southerly by early next week. Expect a return chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the marine area by the weekend. No
significant hazards to small craft are expected through the weekend.
DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  90  70  89  72  87  71  86 /  20  20  10  10  10  50  30  50
Pensacola   74  88  72  88  74  86  74  85 /  10  10   0  10  10  40  30  40
Destin      74  88  73  88  75  85  74  85 /  10  10   0  10  10  30  30  40
Evergreen   66  87  65  90  66  89  67  87 /  10  20  10  10  10  40  30  50
Waynesboro  68  87  66  90  68  88  68  85 /  20  30  10  20  10  50  40  50
Camden      67  82  65  88  67  87  67  85 /  10  20  10  10  10  50  40  50
Crestview   66  90  65  92  67  89  67  88 /  10  10   0  10  10  40  30  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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