177
FXUS64 KMOB 102346
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
646 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A few SHRA/TSRA will persist across southern portions of southeast
MS, southwest AL, and into the western FL panhandle over the next
few hours as a weak frontal boundary continues to move slowly
southward across the region. Localized MVFR to IFR conditions will
be possible in and near convection, along with brief gusty winds
and heavy downpours. Convection should diminish in coverage between
02Z-06Z. VFR is otherwise anticipated through the period with
winds becoming light north to northeast behind the boundary. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A weak frontal boundary continues to slowly move southward across
the area this afternoon. Ahead of the front scattered showers and
thunderstorms are developing in and unstable environment with
MLCAPE values around 2000 J/Kg. Due to the strong instability and
mid level dry air, a few of the storms could produce gusty winds.
Rain chances decrease this evening as the front moves toward the
coast and offshore tonight and instability decreases. A drier
airmass will also work into the area behind the front. Tuesday
will be dry as upper level ridging builds over the region and
precip water values fall to around 1 inch inland to 1.6 inches
along the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s and low
90s. Heat index values should not an issue on Tuesday due to the
lower dewpoints. /13

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

In the wake of a weak front that dives across the area in the near
term, the local area briefly dries out on Wednesday. Expect a dry
airmass to settle overhead through Wednesday with northerly surface
winds ushering in PWATs below an inch (especially north of Highway
84) as the a surface high builds toward the East Coast.

Meanwhile, a shortwave pivots toward the region on Wednesday and
broadens out somewhat as it dips into the Gulf on Thursday. This
elongated trough feature (draped from northeast to southwest across
the Gulf) will drift over the Gulf through early this weekend as a
ridge builds out of the Desert Southwest and into the Southeast.
This trough may begin to retrograde westward across the northern
Gulf toward the end of the weekend as the ridge builds deeper into
the Southeast. Down at the surface, a diffuse trough over the Gulf
(or potentially the remnants of the aforementioned weak front) will
eventually slide across the Gulf at some point, but specifics remain
tricky in this pattern given the uncertainty surrounding the
activity in the CAG. Regardless of the track, it will be a sloppy
system with heavy rain (potentially leading to flash flood issues)
being the predominant concern.

With all of that said, we obviously don`t stay dry for long in the
wake of the front as moisture begins to build back into the eastern
portion of the area (east of I-65) on Thursday. Coverage of showers
and storms on Thursday looks to be more isolated as the northerly
surface winds likely keep the sea breeze pinned near the coast
throughout much of the afternoon. Coverage increases to scattered as
we roll into Friday with a high degree of uncertainty (moreso than
normal) in the rain chances this weekend and into early next week.
Trends in the guidance indicate that the slug of moisture may
slingshot into our area late in the weekend. It`s worth noting that
some of the deterministic guidance is awfully bullish Sunday into
Monday with rainfall amounts (likely convective feedback), so note
that we believe that is unrealistic at this time. Again, it is also
worth noting again that we have low confidence in the timing of the
heavy rain late in the long term timeframe.

Expect a scorcher late in the week and into this weekend with highs
soaring into the mid to upper 90s area-wide. Heat indices will be
100-106 Friday through Sunday area-wide.

Beach Note: The risk of rip currents is LOW through Wednesday night.
Expect to see a bump to a MODERATE risk by Thursday and a HIGH RISK
by Friday. The risk will likely remain HIGH through the weekend
given the eventual onshore flow and eventual swell from the system
moving across the Gulf. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow will
become northerly on Tuesday as a front pushes through. A weak system
will begin to develop by mid week, with moderate easterly flow
expected for the latter half of the week. Seas are also expected to
increase by late week. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  91  69  92  70  94  72  94 /  20   0   0  10  10  20  10  20
Pensacola   75  91  73  92  73  92  75  92 /  30  10   0  10  10  30  20  30
Destin      75  91  74  91  75  90  77  91 /  30  10  10  20  10  30  20  30
Evergreen   66  90  64  92  66  95  69  97 /  10   0   0  10   0  20  10  20
Waynesboro  66  89  64  89  65  94  68  96 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      65  87  63  88  65  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10
Crestview   68  93  66  94  68  95  70  96 /  30   0   0  20  10  30  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob