918
FXUS64 KMOB 111124
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
624 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected through tonight. Northerly winds
around 5-8 knots prevail today then diminish to a light northerly
flow this evening. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 454 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 452 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An upper trof over the easternmost states moves off into the western
Atlantic while a broad shortwave trof over the southern Plains
gradually moves into the north central Gulf coast states. A frontal
boundary which moved through the forecast area earlier looks to
remain stalled across the northeastern Gulf and into the far
northern Florida peninsula/adjacent Georgia, at least through
Wednesday morning. While a surface ridge oriented mostly over the
eastern states promotes a light northerly surface flow over the
forecast area through the period, it`s possible that the remnants of
the frontal boundary could return into the coastal counties on
Wednesday, aided by the sea breeze. At this point, have opted to
continue with a dry forecast through Wednesday, but can`t rule out
that some slight chance pops might eventually be warranted for the
coastal counties on Wednesday. Highs today and Wednesday mostly
range from around 90 well inland to the lower 90s elsewhere. Lows
tonight range from the lower 60s inland to the lower 70s at the
coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday. /29

SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 452 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Shortwave energy that has moved over the Southeast settles into a
mean upper trough stretching from the southern Gulf of Mexico to
northern Caribbean. A dry airmass that has moved over the Southeast
begins to moderate as Gulf moisture that has moved inland over
eastern portions of the Southeast begins to shift west towards the
forecast area. Areas southeast of I-65 and over the Gulf of Mexico
will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms Thursday. An upper
level ridge will build east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley
from over the Plains as the upper trough settles over the southern
Gulf, with temperatures seeing an uptick from Thursday. High
temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected Thursday. Low
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s Wednesday night rise to the
upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday night.

A low risk of rip currents mid week will rise to moderate to high
the end of the week as a more organized southeast to southerly flow
over the Gulf brings increasing onshore swell to north-central Gulf
beaches.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 452 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The Extended is beginning to show some more consistency with the
synoptics over the Gulf and Southeast, though the specifics for the
forecast area are still showing significant spread. For the
synoptics, a piece of shortwave energy breaks off the southwest end
of the Gulf shortwave trough this weekend, then heads northwest
towards the Texas Gulf coast. The upper ridge building east over the
Lower Mississippi River Valley continues to move east over the
Southeast and Tennessee River Valley. Guidance is still advertising
a surface low/circulation organizing over the western Gulf as the
shortwave energy pinches off, which heads towards Texas.
Timing/path/strength of the shortwave system and resultant surface
low varies. The GFS is advertising a more organized system
developing earlier in the weekend, which then heads towards the
Sabine River. The result is stronger low level flow heading towards
east Texas/Louisiana. The ECMWF is slower to develop the Gulf system
this weekend into the coming week, and the surface low heads towards
the southwestern Gulf coast into Tuesday. The GDPS is a bit further
east than the GFS, with timing more consistent with the GFS, with
better moisture influx over western/central portions of the
Southeast, including the forecast area. The significant differences
in the positioning and strength of the low level moisture influx in
the guidance will bring significant differences in precipitation
coverage. The eastern-most GDPS advertises best PoPs over the
Mississippi and Alabama, and the ECMWF over central Texas. The
current forecast leans towards the more middle of the road GFS with
an adjustment towards the ECMWF in strength. Best moisture influx is
over Louisiana and eastern Texas, just west of the forecast area.
Will need to monitor where this strong southeasterly flow sets up,
with possible water issues possible early in the coming week, if the
axis of moisture influx shifts east.

Temperatures are generally a GFS/ECMWF blend. Ahead of the rain
Friday and Saturday, with the upper ridge shifting east over the
Southeast, high temperatures rise to well above seasonal norms,
possibly bumping records. Heat Indices in the 101 to 106 degree
range are indicated. With the uptick in rain Sunday on, temperatures
closer to seasonal norms are expected by Monday.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 452 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

No impacts outside of higher winds and seas near storms are expected
through Saturday. A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow
prevails through Friday, with an offshore flow at night into the
morning hours and mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and early
evening hours. A predominately light to moderate southeasterly flow
is established by Saturday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  68  93  69  94  71  96  73 /  10  10  10   0  10   0  10   0
Pensacola   93  73  93  73  93  75  93  76 /  10  10  10  10  20  10  20  10
Destin      91  74  91  75  91  77  92  78 /  10  10  10  10  30  10  20  10
Evergreen   91  63  92  66  95  68  97  70 /   0   0  10   0  20   0  10   0
Waynesboro  89  63  90  64  94  67  97  70 /   0   0   0   0  10   0  10   0
Camden      89  63  90  64  93  68  96  70 /   0   0  10   0  10   0   0   0
Crestview   93  66  95  67  96  70  97  70 /   0   0  10  10  30   0  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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