405
FXUS64 KMOB 120943
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
443 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A broad shortwave trof becomes oriented over the north central Gulf
coast states today then becomes positioned across the northern Gulf
to off the coast of the Carolinas on Thursday. A light northwesterly
surface flow prevails over the area today with the exception of a
weak sea breeze developing near the coast this afternoon. While deep
layer moisture looks too limited to support pops for most of the
area today, cannot rule out a few shower/storms with the sea breeze
this afternoon and have opted to keep small pops in near the coast.
A similar pattern follows for Thursday with an afternoon sea breeze
developing near the coast, but the sea breeze looks to be aided by a
weak frontal boundary lifting into the coastal counties which was
previously stalled over the northern Gulf. In addition, improved
deep layer moisture works into eastern portions of the area in the
afternoon, and have opted for slight chance to chance pops for
generally along and east of I-65. Highs today range from the upper
80s well inland to the lower 90s for much of the remainder of the
area, then highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 90s. Lows
tonight mostly range from the mid/upper 60s inland to the lower/mid
70s at the coast. Have gone with a low risk for Alabama beaches
through tonight with a moderate risk for the western Florida
panhandle beaches. For Thursday, a moderate risk of rip currents is
expected for both Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches. /29

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

An upper level trough stretching from the western Gulf of Mexico to
Bermuda shifts southeast through the Short Term. The southwestern
end begins to break off over the southern Gulf Friday night, with
a surface low beginning to organize over the Bay of Campeche.
With a surface ridge stretching southwest over the Caribbean and
Southeastern Gulf, the pressure gradient tightens, and
southeasterly flow over the central Gulf beginning to increase.
Gulf moisture begins to move north over the Gulf towards the
northeast and northcentral Gulf coast, but by Saturday morning,
guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values below 1.5" and a
drier airmass over the Southeast. Have kept the coming rains
south of the forecast for now. Upper level high pressure builds
east over the Southeast as the upper trough shifts southeast, and
with that, temperatures rise to well above seasonal norms, topping
out in the mid to upper 90s for Friday. Enough moisture has
returned to the forecast area for Heat Indices to rise into the
100-106 degree range on Friday. The increasing subsidence will
also increase low temperatures from the mid 60s to low 70s
Thursday night to the low 70s well inland to mid/upper 70s along
the coast Friday night.

A low risk of rip currents will rise to moderate by Saturday
morning, to High by Sunday, as increasing swell reaches area beaches
with the increasing winds over the Gulf.
/16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The Extended continues to be a challenge, with the interaction
between eastward moving upper level high pressure over the Southeast
and a developing upper low over the southwestern Gulf. Guidance is
consistent in developing a surface low over the Bay of Campeche
early in the coming week near the developing upper low, then
moving it towards southern Texas. The surface ridge that has moved
over the eastern Gulf moves off, but another surface ridge
settles off the East Coast, bringing increasing low level flow
over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico. Guidance varies on the
direction of the developing low level flow, ranging from easterly
to south-southeasterly, and from there, where the best Gulf
moisture flows inland. The ECMWF continues to aim the inland
moisture influx towards Texas, whilst the GFS and GDPS continue to
advertise eastern Louisiana/Mississippi. The GEFS and CMCE
ensembles are in good agreement with their respective model
physicals, whilst the EPS ensembles shift towards the GFS/GDPS and
their respective ensembles. With that said, the better moisture
influx shifts a bit further east from yesterday, to over eastern
Louisiana/Mississippi. This axis brings southwestern portions of
the forecast area under an increased risk of water issues. Will
have to continue to monitor for flooding issues Sunday through
Tuesday.

Another day of well above seasonal temperatures is expected
Saturday, topping out in the mid to upper 90s with Heat Indices
topping out in the 101 to 106 degree range. From there, increasing
cloudiness and rain will tighten the temperature range, dropping
high temperatures to below seasonal norms whilst keeping low
temperatures above.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow prevails through
Friday, with an offshore flow at night into the morning hours and a
mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and early evening hours. A
light to moderate southeasterly flow is established by Saturday and
strengthens on Sunday. Small craft should exercise caution beginning
on Sunday for the open Gulf waters. Higher winds and seas are
possible near storms. /29


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  69  94  72  96  73  96  75 /  10  10  20  10  10   0  10  10
Pensacola   94  74  93  75  94  76  94  78 /  10  10  30  10  10  10  20  20
Destin      91  77  91  76  92  78  92  79 /  20  10  40  10  10  10  20  20
Evergreen   94  67  95  70  97  71  99  73 /  10  10  20   0  10   0  10   0
Waynesboro  90  63  94  68  97  70  99  73 /   0   0  10   0  10   0   0   0
Camden      91  65  93  69  96  71  99  73 /   0   0  10   0  10   0   0   0
Crestview   96  69  96  70  97  71  98  73 /  20  10  40  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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