Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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337 FXUS64 KMOB 061757 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 MVFR conditions will be possible with isolated to scattered convection across the area through the rest of the afternoon, then with spotty early evening convection along and east of I-65. VFR conditions are otherwise anticipated to prevail, although cannot rule out some late night patchy fog. Winds will tend to be variable at 5-10 knots this afternoon, then a light northerly flow develops tonight and continues into Friday morning. /29 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A shortwave trof currently over the forecast area moves well away from the area through Friday within the deep layer northwesterly flow pattern over the region. Abundant moisture currently in place over the area trends progressively drier through the period, with precipitable water values near 1.75-2.0 inches decreasing to 1.0-1.5 inches by Friday afternoon. There are a number of surface features to contend with in this forecast, the first two of which are a weak outflow boundary oriented near the I-65 corridor and another weak boundary, possibly a left over outflow boundary, which extends near a PNS-79J line. Both of these weak boundaries are anticipated to progress slowly eastward across the remainder of the forecast area through the afternoon. In addition to these two features, a weak surface trof extends from southeast Louisiana into northeast Alabama and crosses Wayne and Choctaw counties. This weak surface trof is anticipated to linger near this position through the early evening hours. A more well defined cold front meanwhile approaches from the north and eventually catches up with the weak surface trof, with the frontal boundary then moving into the coastal counties on Friday and stalling. For the rest of this afternoon, current trends and convective guidance point to coverage associated with the weak surface features remaining scattered at best, so have updated to lower pops to chance to good chance, with the good chance pops mainly located east of I-65. Have gone with slight chance pops generally along and east of I-65 early this evening, but otherwise dry conditions prevail tonight into Friday as progressively drier air flows into the area. An exception to the pops on Friday will be slight chance pops near the coast in the late afternoon, where the stalled frontal boundary and marginally sufficient deep layer moisture may allow for some isolated convection to develop. Lows tonight range from the upper 60s inland to the lower/mid 70s near the coast. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the lower 90s. A low risk of rip currents is expected for tonight and Friday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 70 93 67 91 69 93 72 90 / 20 10 0 0 0 10 10 30 Pensacola 73 91 71 91 72 92 75 89 / 20 20 0 0 0 10 10 40 Destin 76 89 73 89 74 90 77 88 / 20 20 10 0 0 10 10 40 Evergreen 68 93 63 91 66 94 69 88 / 10 10 0 0 0 10 20 40 Waynesboro 68 91 63 91 67 93 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 30 Camden 68 90 61 89 65 92 69 87 / 10 0 0 0 0 20 20 30 Crestview 69 95 65 92 66 96 70 92 / 20 20 0 0 0 10 10 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob