573
FXUS64 KMOB 211159
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
659 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Upper level ridging will build over the area through Wednesday.
The subsidence beneath the ridge will maintain a dry pattern with
mostly clear skies and above normal warmth. High pressure over the
western Atlantic will maintain a light southeasterly flow.
Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the upper 80s
to around 90 inland and low to mid 80s near the coast. Lows
tonight will be in the low/mid 60s inland to around 70 near the
coast. /13

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Dry and warm will be the predominant forecast through the holiday
weekend.

Mid and upper level ridging begins to dampen out as we roll into
Thursday as a series of shortwaves slides around the periphery of
the ridge. Flow aloft turns zonal through the first half of the
weekend as shortwaves pivot across the region. Meanwhile, a surface
high over the western Atlantic maintains a firm grip over parts of
the Southeast and eastern Gulf through Saturday. The influence of
deep layer ridging should keep rain chances minimal through the
weekend with only a 15-20% POP in the afternoon and early evening
generally north of the Highway 84 corridor (further away from the
influence of the ridging) Friday through Sunday.

A more potent shortwave dives across the Plains early next week and
may bring the next substantial chance for showers and storms beyond
Monday. While we stuck to the blended guidance on Days 7 and 8,
the best chance for showers and storms likely won`t develop until
Day 8 (Tuesday).

Heat indices soar up to 100F over the holiday weekend with
daytime high temperatures rising into the mid to low 90s across
inland communities (upper 80s at the beaches). Overnight lows only
fall into the 70s this weekend.

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW through Saturday with the
RCMOS probabilities remaining LOW through at least Sunday.
Probabilities do begin to increase toward the MODERATE category
by the afternoon hours on Memorial Day. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 516 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and waves
near the coast due to the afternoon seabreeze. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      86  67  86  68  86  71  87  73 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10   0
Pensacola   83  69  85  71  85  73  85  75 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10   0
Destin      83  71  84  73  84  74  84  75 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10   0
Evergreen   87  63  90  66  90  67  90  70 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Waynesboro  89  65  89  66  90  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Camden      87  64  89  66  89  68  90  70 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  20  10
Crestview   88  63  90  66  89  67  89  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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