492
FXUS64 KMOB 071149
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
643 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period, no ceilings and only
a few mid level clouds possible this afternoon. Possibly a very
isolated shower or storm down near the coast this afternoon as
well, but too few and far between to include in TAF`s. Calm to
light west winds this morning, becoming northwest to north later
in the day through tonight. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 458 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 456 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A shortwave upper trough has now moved east and south of the
forecast area and is already ushering in a drier deep layer airmass
into our area. A surface cold front is moving into the forecast area
from the north this morning and will be dropping south across the
area today, likely moving offshore out into the northern Gulf by
this evening. PWATS initially in the 1.40 range early this morning
will gradually lower from north to south today. By this early this
evening PWATS will generally be in the 0.50-0.80 inch range over
most of the interior, but remaining just above 1.00 inches near the
coast. With the better moisture near the coast, combined with the
front moving down into the area and any weak sea breeze circulation,
may see an isolated shower or storm this afternoon over the coastal
counties (PoPs less than 20 percent), but rainfree elsewhere.
Otherwise, hot today as high pressure builds into the region in the
wake of the front. We expect afternoon temperatures to top out in
the lower 90s for all locations except the immediate coast, where
mid to upper 80s are more likely. A few locations over the interior
could warm into the middle 90s this afternoon. The front is expected
to remain offshore to our south tonight and Saturday, with high
pressure remaining in place over our area. No rainfall is expected.
Lows tonight will be a little cooler than the past several nights,
with lows mainly in the lower 60s for all areas north of the I-10
corridor and in the mid 60s along the I-10 corridor. Lows tonight
for locations along the beaches will likely be in the low to mid
70s.  Another hot one on Saturday with high temperatures very
similar to today, with highs again in the lower 90s for all
locations except the immediate coast, where mid to upper 80s are
more likely. A few locations over the interior could warm into the
middle 90s again on Saturday afternoon. The risk of rip currents
along the Gulf beaches will be LOW through Saturday. DS/12

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 456 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A series of vort lobes sweeping around the base of an upper low over
the northeastern Conus shifts an upper high located over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley south and west. A cold front begins to move
south over the Southeast Sunday night. A dry airmass that has moved
over the forecast area Saturday night (with precipitable h20 values
between 0.8" and 1.0") sees some modification into the 1.0" to 1.2"
range over land portions of the forecast area, but not enough for
any rain. The airmass south of the coast does modify sufficiently
for some showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf Sunday
night. The upper ridge continues to bring temperatures above
seasonal norms. High temperatures ranging from around 90 along the
coast to low to mid 90s inland are expected Sunday. With the uptick
in moisture levels, Heat Indices rising into the 100 to 106 degree
range over most of the forecast area are expected Sunday. Low
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s Saturday night rise into the
low to mid 70s over most of the forecast area Sunday night.

A decreasing tidal cycle and relatively light winds offshore will
keep the rip current risk a low levels through the weekend into the
coming week.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 456 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Inconsistent handling of shortwave energy swinging around the
northeast Conus upper low and the effects on the cold front moving
south over the Southeast. The GFS is advertising a more organized
upper low swinging around the mean upper low, which then opens to a
mean upper trough over the eastern Conus and a stronger cold front
crossing the forecast area Tuesday/Tuesday night. A quick round of
showers and thunderstorms are advertised for Tuesday/Tuesday night,
with a mainly drier airmass moving over forecast area for the rest
of the forecast. Temperatures generally above seasonal norms are
advertised after a below normal Wednesday. The ECMWF, on the other
hand, is advertising weaker vort lobes swing around the mean upper
low into mid week, but a stronger piece of energy moves through the
zonal upper flow over the southeastern quarter of the Conus,
ultimately organizing into an upper low over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley by Thursday. Temperatures around seasonal norms with
daily showers and thunderstorms are expected in the ECMWF. For the
forecast, have went with a blended approach for the forecast, with
temperatures around seasonal and daily showers and thunderstorms,
with a better chance over and south of the coast.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 456 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

No significant impacts are expected through the period. A light
diurnal wind is expected today through Saturday, with offshore flow
at night and in the early morning hours and onshore flow in the
afternoon and early evening hours. A more persistent onshore flow is
then expected Saturday night through Tuesday. No rain expected over
the weekend, but a chance for showers and storms returns during the
early part of next week. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  67  92  70  93  73  93  73 /  20   0   0   0  10  10  50  40
Pensacola   93  70  90  73  91  75  92  76 /  20   0   0   0  10  10  50  50
Destin      90  73  89  74  89  77  90  77 /  20   0   0   0  10  10  50  50
Evergreen   93  62  92  65  95  70  94  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10  50  40
Waynesboro  92  62  92  67  95  70  93  69 /   0   0   0   0  10  10  50  30
Camden      90  61  90  64  94  70  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  40  30
Crestview   96  64  94  65  96  69  95  71 /  20   0   0   0  10  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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