337
FXUS64 KMOB 061757
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

MVFR conditions will be possible with isolated to scattered
convection across the area through the rest of the afternoon, then
with spotty early evening convection along and east of I-65. VFR
conditions are otherwise anticipated to prevail, although cannot
rule out some late night patchy fog. Winds will tend to be
variable at 5-10 knots this afternoon, then a light northerly
flow develops tonight and continues into Friday morning. /29

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A shortwave trof currently over the forecast area moves well away
from the area through Friday within the deep layer northwesterly
flow pattern over the region. Abundant moisture currently in place
over the area trends progressively drier through the period, with
precipitable water values near 1.75-2.0 inches decreasing to
1.0-1.5 inches by Friday afternoon. There are a number of surface
features to contend with in this forecast, the first two of which
are a weak outflow boundary oriented near the I-65 corridor and
another weak boundary, possibly a left over outflow boundary,
which extends near a PNS-79J line. Both of these weak boundaries
are anticipated to progress slowly eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area through the afternoon. In addition to these
two features, a weak surface trof extends from southeast Louisiana
into northeast Alabama and crosses Wayne and Choctaw counties.
This weak surface trof is anticipated to linger near this position
through the early evening hours. A more well defined cold front
meanwhile approaches from the north and eventually catches up with
the weak surface trof, with the frontal boundary then moving into
the coastal counties on Friday and stalling. For the rest of this
afternoon, current trends and convective guidance point to
coverage associated with the weak surface features remaining
scattered at best, so have updated to lower pops to chance to good
chance, with the good chance pops mainly located east of I-65.
Have gone with slight chance pops generally along and east of I-65
early this evening, but otherwise dry conditions prevail tonight
into Friday as progressively drier air flows into the area. An
exception to the pops on Friday will be slight chance pops near
the coast in the late afternoon, where the stalled frontal
boundary and marginally sufficient deep layer moisture may allow
for some isolated convection to develop. Lows tonight range from
the upper 60s inland to the lower/mid 70s near the coast. Highs on
Friday will be mostly in the lower 90s. A low risk of rip
currents is expected for tonight and Friday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  93  67  91  69  93  72  90 /  20  10   0   0   0  10  10  30
Pensacola   73  91  71  91  72  92  75  89 /  20  20   0   0   0  10  10  40
Destin      76  89  73  89  74  90  77  88 /  20  20  10   0   0  10  10  40
Evergreen   68  93  63  91  66  94  69  88 /  10  10   0   0   0  10  20  40
Waynesboro  68  91  63  91  67  93  69  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  20  30
Camden      68  90  61  89  65  92  69  87 /  10   0   0   0   0  20  20  30
Crestview   69  95  65  92  66  96  70  92 /  20  20   0   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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