954
FXUS64 KMOB 052027
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
140 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Isolated to scattered convection is possible this afternoon into
tonight, with scattered to numerous convective coverage Thursday
morning. IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds will accompany the
stronger storms. Southerly winds around 10 knots diminish and
become south to southwest tonight, then a southwesterly flow at 5
to 10 knots follows for Thursday morning. /29

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A well defined shortwave trof oriented along the lower/mid
Mississippi River valley progresses into the extreme southeast
states and northeastern Gulf through Thursday. This feature is
embedded within northwesterly flow aloft created by a large scale
western states ridge/eastern states trof pattern. A weak surface
trof (associated with the shortwave trof) will be oriented near
the lower/mid Mississippi River valley early this evening, then
progresses slowly into the western portion of the forecast area
through Thursday afternoon. Abundant deep layer moisture will be
in place over the area tonight, with precipitable water values
trending from 1.6-2.0 inches this evening to 1.8-2.1 inches
overnight. Similar values continue for Thursday with the exception
of drier air working into the westernmost portions of the area in
the afternoon. A decaying MCS over portions of southwestern
Louisiana and much of coastal Texas has sent an outflow boundary
with convection advancing into south central Louisiana. MLCAPE
values ahead of this convection (and into the forecast area) are
typically 2000-2500 J/kg with similar values continuing into the
early evening. While not handled particularly well by current
CAMS, anticipate that convection will tend to be cold pool
dominant, helping to maintain the outflow boundary, with at least
some convection progressing into the forecast area this evening.
0-3 km bulk shear values may increase to near 40 knots this
evening over western portions of the area, and some strong storms
cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, shear values look to be generally
low overnight into Thursday. The shortwave trof and the
approaching weak surface trof will serve to support chance to
likely pops over the area on Thursday, with the coverage
diminishing over the western portions in the afternoon as drier
air begins to work into the area late in the day. Lows tonight
range from the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s near the
coast. Highs on Thursday will be mostly in the upper 80s. A
moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  89  71  94  68  91  72  93 /  40  70  10  10   0  10   0  20
Pensacola   76  87  74  92  70  90  74  91 /  40  70  20  20  10  10  10  20
Destin      76  87  76  90  72  89  75  88 /  40  70  20  20  10  10  10  20
Evergreen   70  89  69  92  63  92  67  93 /  50  70  10  10   0   0  10  20
Waynesboro  69  89  68  92  63  92  68  93 /  60  60  10  10   0  10  10  20
Camden      69  87  68  89  62  90  67  92 /  60  70  10   0   0   0  10  20
Crestview   71  89  69  94  63  93  67  94 /  30  70  10  10   0   0  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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