Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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954 FXUS64 KMOB 052027 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 140 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Isolated to scattered convection is possible this afternoon into tonight, with scattered to numerous convective coverage Thursday morning. IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms. Southerly winds around 10 knots diminish and become south to southwest tonight, then a southwesterly flow at 5 to 10 knots follows for Thursday morning. /29 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A well defined shortwave trof oriented along the lower/mid Mississippi River valley progresses into the extreme southeast states and northeastern Gulf through Thursday. This feature is embedded within northwesterly flow aloft created by a large scale western states ridge/eastern states trof pattern. A weak surface trof (associated with the shortwave trof) will be oriented near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley early this evening, then progresses slowly into the western portion of the forecast area through Thursday afternoon. Abundant deep layer moisture will be in place over the area tonight, with precipitable water values trending from 1.6-2.0 inches this evening to 1.8-2.1 inches overnight. Similar values continue for Thursday with the exception of drier air working into the westernmost portions of the area in the afternoon. A decaying MCS over portions of southwestern Louisiana and much of coastal Texas has sent an outflow boundary with convection advancing into south central Louisiana. MLCAPE values ahead of this convection (and into the forecast area) are typically 2000-2500 J/kg with similar values continuing into the early evening. While not handled particularly well by current CAMS, anticipate that convection will tend to be cold pool dominant, helping to maintain the outflow boundary, with at least some convection progressing into the forecast area this evening. 0-3 km bulk shear values may increase to near 40 knots this evening over western portions of the area, and some strong storms cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, shear values look to be generally low overnight into Thursday. The shortwave trof and the approaching weak surface trof will serve to support chance to likely pops over the area on Thursday, with the coverage diminishing over the western portions in the afternoon as drier air begins to work into the area late in the day. Lows tonight range from the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s near the coast. Highs on Thursday will be mostly in the upper 80s. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 89 71 94 68 91 72 93 / 40 70 10 10 0 10 0 20 Pensacola 76 87 74 92 70 90 74 91 / 40 70 20 20 10 10 10 20 Destin 76 87 76 90 72 89 75 88 / 40 70 20 20 10 10 10 20 Evergreen 70 89 69 92 63 92 67 93 / 50 70 10 10 0 0 10 20 Waynesboro 69 89 68 92 63 92 68 93 / 60 60 10 10 0 10 10 20 Camden 69 87 68 89 62 90 67 92 / 60 70 10 0 0 0 10 20 Crestview 71 89 69 94 63 93 67 94 / 30 70 10 10 0 0 10 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob