Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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448 FXUS64 KMOB 241152 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 652 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 652 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Current surface observations reveal a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings across the area. Low cloud bases are expected to lift through this morning with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the day and into the evening. Another round of MVFR ceilings and patchy fog is expected late tonight and early Saturday morning. Southerly to southwesterly winds around 6-13 knots continue today with light southwesterly winds expected tonight. /14 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that patchy fog has developed over portions of south central Alabama and the Florida Panhandle early this morning. This fog could become locally dense at times over the next few hours, but should begin to dissipate around sunrise. Current radar imagery also notes a few very light showers over south central Alabama, but these will continue to weaken as they move east. As we head into the rest of the day, upper level ridging remains in place over the southwestern Gulf and southern Mexico with the northern periphery of the ridge situated along the Gulf Coast. A shortwave currently over southern Arkansas will continue moving eastward and is expected to swing across northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, surface high pressure continues to dominate over the Florida Peninsula with an onshore flow continuing across the local area. The subsident pattern will keep mostly dry and warm conditions in place for today. The exception will be a few isolated showers or storms that may try to develop mainly over interior areas this afternoon and evening as the shortwave progresses north of the area. Patchy fog will be possible again late tonight and early saturday morning over south central Alabama and portions of the Florida Panhandle. Lows will only fall into the lower and middle 70s tonight. Focus then turns to Saturday as the ridging begins to amplify and another shortwave slides along its the northern periphery. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate a complex of storms associated with the shortwave will develop and dive southeastward across northern Mississippi and into central Alabama Saturday morning, before moving into portions of southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon. The southern part of this complex could clip our interior southwest and south central Alabama counties late Saturday morning into the afternoon. Given that there will be plenty of instability (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/Kg) combined with dry mid-levels and decent DCAPE, we could see a few strong or perhaps severe storms on Saturday in these areas with damaging winds being the main concern. SPC has outlooked portions of southwest and south central Alabama in a Marginal Risk on Saturday for this potential. Outside of any convection, it will be rather warm. High temperatures today climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s for most inland areas with middle 80s at the beaches. Saturday is expected to be even warmer as the upper ridging amplifies with highs topping out in the lower 90s and a few spots potentially hitting 94-95 degrees. A low risk of rip currents is expected today and Saturday. /14 SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 An upper level ridge will be centered just west of the area on Saturday with a northwesterly upper level flow. This will result in mostly dry and warm conditions. There is a small possibility of the remnants of an MCS moving around the ridge Saturday into Saturday night mainly affect northeast portions of the region. Nighttime low temperatures each night will range from the lower 70s over most of the interior (a few upper 60s possible) to the mid and upper 70s closer to and along the coast. Daytime highs on Sunday will in the lower 90s, except for mid 80s along the coast. /13 LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The upper ridge breaks down and shifts eastward next week. This will allow a weak cold front to move into the area Monday into Tuesday. This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. This front is expected to push offshore by midweek with a drier airmass moving into the area with rain chances near zero Wednesday and Thursday. Little change in high temps through the week with upper 80s and low 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast. Low temps will cool behind the front with the drier airmass in place. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. /13 MARINE... Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A mainly light onshore flow pattern will continue over the marine area through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Seas remain generally 2 feet or less. Winds will increase slightly Sunday into Monday with a slight building of seas over the Gulf waters as a cold front approaches from the north. /14 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 88 73 90 73 89 74 90 72 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 Pensacola 86 75 88 74 87 76 87 75 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 10 20 Destin 84 75 86 75 85 77 86 76 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 90 70 92 69 92 71 92 69 / 20 10 20 10 0 0 20 30 Waynesboro 91 71 94 71 93 71 92 69 / 20 10 10 0 0 10 20 30 Camden 89 71 92 70 92 71 89 69 / 20 20 30 10 0 10 30 40 Crestview 89 69 92 69 90 71 91 69 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 10 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob