044
AWUS01 KWNH 120512
FFGMPD
FLZ000-121000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0426
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
112 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Areas affected...Tampa Metropolitan and surrounding areas of the
west-central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120511Z - 121000Z

Summary...A couple bands of heavy rainfall have materialized along
the eastern edge of a weak low approximately 30 miles west of
Tampa.  Heavy rainfall could persist for several hours, causing
urban/localized flash flooding.

Discussion...Persistent convection has materialized along focused
low-level confluence from Tampa southward to Northport over the
past 1-2 hours.  The cells are also focused just east of a weak
surface low offshore over the far eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The
cells are in a very moist airmass (2+ inch PW values), with strong
instability located both offshore and along and along the
confluence axis.  Cells were not moving very quickly, and radar
estimates were already beginning to exceed 2 inches/hr beneath
heavier cells as the airmass supporting the activity was also
fostering efficient rain rates.

Some concern exists that the convection over Tampa could persist
for several hours.  The weak low west of Tampa is expected to move
very little tonight, and nearby confluence should persist as
stronger buoyancy remains oriented along/just west of the
coastline.  1-2 inch/hr rain rates should continue, and 4-6 inch
totals are possible through 10Z especially if convection remains
as focused as current observations suggest.  These totals should
exceed FFG thresholds across the discussion area (generally in the
3-inch/3-hour range), and with hydrophobic/urbanized land surfaces
beneath the ongoing convection, flash flood potential is expected
to increase.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   28648280 28568211 28108134 26818094 26308142
            26248295 27228357