Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
822 AWUS01 KWNH 080733 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081131- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0407 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 AM EDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...southern Missouri, far northern Arkansas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 080731Z - 081131Z Summary...Intense convective complex is making quick southeast progress toward the discussion area. Rain rates of 1-1.5 inch/hr are continuing with stronger convection near the MCS. Flash flooding is likely - especially as the band reaches hillier terrain of the Ozarks. Discussion...An intense MCS continues to migrate southeastward across southeast Kansas/western Missouri and continues to be aided by 1) strong mid-level lapse rated (7.5+ C/km) and 2) strong southwesterly low-level flow providing ascent/convergence on the MCS`s western/southern flanks. The end result has been areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates at times, which have threatened areal FFG thresholds (1.5-2 inch/hr). The MCS was making quick southeastward progress toward the Missouri Ozarks, where hillier terrain and slightly more sensitive ground conditions should prompt an increased flash flood risk. Additionally, convection has formed out ahead of the line of storms on the southern extent of the complex (near the Pittsburg, KS vicinity). Cell mergers and the orientation of this line (favoring localized training) may boost rain rates into the 2 inch/hr range on at least a spotty basis, with 1-1.5 inch/hr rates becoming widespread especially across southwestern Missouri. Each of these factors suggest an increasing flash flood risk across the Ozarks through 11Z. It is also probable that the complex (and associated flash flood threat) will approach northern Arkansas around/after 1030Z. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39269390 38929256 38069136 36989087 36239093 36029163 35969292 36529428 37519525 39179470