234
FXUS63 KMPX 250558
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1258 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions this evening with cooler and drier air
  returning tonight.

- The active pattern continues for Memorial Day weekend,
  especially Sunday when widespread rain is likely across
  southern MN and western WI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A cold front has pushed into western WI this afternoon, sparking
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Eau Claire to
Ladysmith. Colder air is beginning to filter into western MN,
accompanied by gusty winds and increasing stratocu. The gusty
winds will continue through mid evening, and then as the low
continues northward into southern Canada, winds will ease
overnight. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s area wide.

Hot on the heels of today`s system, the next one to watch will
develop over eastern CO and western KS Saturday. A warm front
will set up across central MN in the afternoon and a few showers
may form along it. The compact low will progress northeast to IA
Sunday morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will remain
somewhat confined near the low center. Thus, rain totals and
PoPs will be heavily dependent on the track of the low itself
for Sunday. As one would expect, PoPs are highest across
southern MN and western WI, but there remains a lot of spread
among the ensemble guidance. At MSP, for example, QPF spread
ranges from zero to 2.5 inches on the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM
ensemble systems. The lighter totals are carrying the most
weight in the ensemble mean, but it illustrates the sensitivity
at hour 48 of the low track.

That system heads out Sunday night and northwest flow takes hold
for early next week. A couple disturbances embedded in the
northwest flow will bring shower and thunderstorm chances
Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will also fall to below normal
with highs in the 60s Tuesday.

Surface high pressure will build east to the eastern U.S. mid
to late week and allow southeast low level flow to moderate
temperatures back to near or above normal across the Upper
Midwest. Another trough approaching from the northern Rockies
may bring increasing chances for rain Thursday night and Friday,
but any precip should be encountering a lot of dry air this far
east with flow from the Gulf being cut off.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Mainly VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration for
all sites. Cloud coverage will slowly increase from start to
finish, starting as high cirrus clouds that will gradually
develop into ceiling in the 080-120 levels late this afternoon
into this evening. A few showers are possible in west-central MN
late in this TAF period so have included its mention at AXN-STC,
with chances increasing beyond this TAF period so the remainder
of the TAF sites are dry with this issuance. Winds will
generally run SW for much of today into tonight, eventually
backing to SE during the early morning hours Sunday, with speeds
under 10kts through daybreak, 10-15kts this afternoon, then
settling back down tonight into Sunday.

KMSP...No additional concerns. Low level dry air in place is
expected to mitigate any precipitation potential for this
evening through early morning Sunday, but chances will increase
for rain during the day Sunday. This will be addressed in the
upcoming TAF issuances.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind E to NE 10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...JPC