Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 231656

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1056 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.Updated for 18z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A much quieter day today with stratus dissipating across much of
the area due to the subsidence behind the departing winter storm.
Should see a fair amount of sun this morning before clouds
increase some again later today into tonight. Highs will be near
normal in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 404 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Overall a quiet long term period ahead with no significant chances
of precipitation in the foreseeable future, and temperatures running
above normal for late January.

Later this week, an upper level ridge will begin pushing into our
area Wednesday night as a trough over the Pacific reaches the west
coast, enhancing the downstream ridge and pushing it east. A clipper
system will result for southern Canada as we head into Thursday
night and Friday, bringing warm southwesterly flow to our area.
There are still some timing differences with the frontal passage
Friday as the surface low in Canada translates east.  This will be a
dry fropa for us, but the timing could really affect how warm we get
on Friday ahead of the front.  For now, kept a blended approach in
the forecast for lower 40s due to the timing differences.  For the
areas that just received significant snowfall, trended the highs
downward from the previous run given the obvious influence of the
new snowpack.  Would not be surprised for the forecast to continue to
get cooler for the snow covered portion of our forecast area.

Temperatures will cool through the weekend behind the aforementioned
clipper, but just drop to near normal for a day or two.  The
progressive pattern lifts the jet back north early next week, with
no significant systems anywhere nearby expected at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

MVFR cigs have eroded across central area. May still keep cigs
going at KEAU this afternoon, perhaps clearing some into the
evening. KAXN-KRWF on the edge of the western cloud bank. Expect
this area to begin to shift east during the afternoon and cigs
lowering to IFR and perhaps some Fog. This may work east
overnight into western WI early Wed morning, We will mention IFR
to the west and north and keep lower end of MVFR cigs to the east
and south for now. Light n-nw wind becoming light s-sw into

KMSP...VFR trend through the afternoon with perhaps some MVFR
cigs moving in this evening. Still a chance of IFR later tonight.
Will leave lower end MVFR for now. Should see improvement into
Wednesday afternoon.

Wed night...MVFR cigs. Winds SW 5 kts.
Thu...Chc MVFR/IFR cigs. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. Winds S-SW 5-15 kts.




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