Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
280 FXUS63 KMPX 242345 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 645 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions this evening with cooler and drier air returning tonight. - The active pattern continues for Memorial Day weekend, especially Sunday when widespread rain is likely across southern MN and western WI. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A cold front has pushed into western WI this afternoon, sparking scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Eau Claire to Ladysmith. Colder air is beginning to filter into western MN, accompanied by gusty winds and increasing stratocu. The gusty winds will continue through mid evening, and then as the low continues northward into southern Canada, winds will ease overnight. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s area wide. Hot on the heels of today`s system, the next one to watch will develop over eastern CO and western KS Saturday. A warm front will set up across central MN in the afternoon and a few showers may form along it. The compact low will progress northeast to IA Sunday morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will remain somewhat confined near the low center. Thus, rain totals and PoPs will be heavily dependent on the track of the low itself for Sunday. As one would expect, PoPs are highest across southern MN and western WI, but there remains a lot of spread among the ensemble guidance. At MSP, for example, QPF spread ranges from zero to 2.5 inches on the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM ensemble systems. The lighter totals are carrying the most weight in the ensemble mean, but it illustrates the sensitivity at hour 48 of the low track. That system heads out Sunday night and northwest flow takes hold for early next week. A couple disturbances embedded in the northwest flow will bring shower and thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will also fall to below normal with highs in the 60s Tuesday. Surface high pressure will build east to the eastern U.S. mid to late week and allow southeast low level flow to moderate temperatures back to near or above normal across the Upper Midwest. Another trough approaching from the northern Rockies may bring increasing chances for rain Thursday night and Friday, but any precip should be encountering a lot of dry air this far east with flow from the Gulf being cut off. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Extensive diurnal stratocu field out there this early evening will slowly diminish after sunset, with the wind gusts following suite a couple of hours later. We`ll start off Saturday with mainly clear skies, but mid level clouds will be on the increase through the day as a warm front slowly develops over central MN. RAP forecast soundings are dry below 10k feet and it looks like overrunning to the north of the boundary won`t start producing -RA until it`s near an AXN/BRD line after 21z Sat, so for all by AXN and maybe STC, Saturday looks dry. Winds this period will slowly transition from the current west to a more SSW by the end of the period, with some gustiness showing up again Saturday afternoon in southern MN into western WI. KMSP...There is a small threat for a shower Saturday between 21z and 23z, though given the dry air below 10k feet, kept the TAF dry. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind E to NE 10 kts. MON...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind WNW 10-15G25 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...MPG