Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
578 FNUS73 KMPX 231458 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Numo Rx...MN DNR National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 958 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... For the Numo Rx fire, winds will be out of the south/southeast at ignition with speeds between 10-15 mph. A slight increase in winds will bring gusts into to the 20-25 mph range this afternoon. RH`s in the 50s at ignition will fall into the 40-45 percent range this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening, with more likely storms overnight. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Temperature.........69 at ignition...Max 80. RH..................57 percent at ignition...Min 36 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise South winds 10 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Good /54800 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent /131100 knot-ft/ increasing to excellent (174500 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 21 to 30 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P Sky cover.......PC PC PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC Temp............69 72 74 76 77 78 78 78 76 73 69 67 RH..............57 51 48 43 40 37 39 39 43 48 55 59 20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S SE SE 20 FT wind spd..10 13 14 14 15 16 16 15 14 14 14 14 20 FT wind gust.17 18 20 22 22 23 24 23 23 22 22 22 Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 3.9 5.1 5.9 6.0 7.0 6.8 6.2 2.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S Transp wind spd.21 22 23 25 25 29 30 29 25 23 22 21 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely in the evening. Chance of thunderstorms through the night. Showers overnight. Temperature.........Min 57. RH..................Max 90 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (155200 knot-ft) decreasing to good (53700 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (7000 knot-ft) late in the night. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 21 to 29 mph decreasing to 14 to 18 mph overnight. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Rain showers likely in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms through the day. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Temperature.........Max 66. RH..................Min 56 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 14 mph shifting to the west 22 to 23 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12900 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (106000 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (115300 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 21 mph increasing to west 24 to 32 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Strus Requested by...Louise Spiczka Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2415002.0/MPX .DELDT 05/23/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL louise.spiczka@state.mn.us