710
FNUS73 KMPX 111735
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Ordway Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1235 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Humidity values are trending lower than previously forecast. Below
is the updated Spot Forecast for the Ordway Rx burn.

For this afternoon, expect mostly sunny skies humidity values
dropping into the lower 20s percent this afternoon as temperatures
climb into the 70s. There is  a small chance that humidity values
could fall into the upper teens. Surface level winds are still forecast
to be primarily out of the west at 5-10mph today, with a few gusts
peaking at around 20mph during the afternoon.

Please contact our office at 952-361-6671 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........64 at ignition...Max 75.
RH..................30 percent at ignition...Min 22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /9400 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /101200 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7200 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............64  68  70  71  73  74  74  75  75  74  72  67
RH..............30  31  26  25  24  22  23  22  24  26  28  39
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   5   7   8   10  10  10  10  10  8   8
20 FT wind gust.    12  12  13  14  15  16  16  15  14  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.8 4.7 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.2 6.9 2.2 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   9   13  12  13  13  16  16  16  12  10  10
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Max 64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (96900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........Max 80.
RH..................Min 22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 10 to 14 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (79500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (107300
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest 14
                    to 21 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Beitlich
Requested by...Matt Graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413762.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mgraeve@tnc.org