860
FXUS63 KMQT 080901
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
501 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few stronger storms capable of small hail and gusty winds
  are possible this afternoon, mainly east-central.
- Showery weather and much cooler through the weekend under the
  influence of low pressure, then warming and drying early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Current radar mosaic is beginning to light up a bit to the west as
rain showers enter the area with the next shortwave.  These rain
showers will continue their eastward propagation into central Upper
Michigan through the course of the morning and eventually the
eastern third of the forecast area by this afternoon.  By this
afternoon, a cold front combined with lake breezes could initiate
thunderstorm development across the central and east quadrants. With
limited instability, storms are not expected to reach severe levels.
 Nonetheless, some could become strong at times with pea-sized hail
and gusty winds with some SBCAPE values in the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range and bulk shear around 30-40 kts.  Meanwhile, temperatures
today will generally top off in the upper 60s/low 70s with west-
northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph by this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Upper air pattern consists of an elongated trough and several closed
lows along most of the Canadian/U.S. border into New England 12z
Sat. Upper level troughing slowly moves south through upper Great
Lakes Sat and Sat night. Upper high pressure ridging then moves into
the area on Mon. Next chance for rain moves into the area on Sat
into Sat evening and then another chance for pcpn Sun before it
dries out Sun night. Pcpn chances do not look that great and will be
mostly hit and miss.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge in the
western U.S. and across the upper Great Lakes with a trough in the
northern plains 12z Tue. This trough moves through the upper Great
Lakes 12z Wed with more upper level troughing near the area 12z Thu
through 12z Fri. Temperatures go from near normal on Tue to above
normal Wed through Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Mostly clear skies have returned to UP terminals but the next
disturbance is approaching from the west. Cloud coverage increases
with overcast VFR cigs expected Saturday morning as the disturbance
ripples eastward across the area. Light rain chances accompany the
increased cloudiness Saturday morning, but cig/vsby restrictions are
not expected. Showers and thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity
of SAW Saturday afternoon and if storms occur then they may be
capable of brief gusty/erratic winds, small hail, and cig/vsby
restrictions. Decided on vicinity thunderstorms at this time given
low confidence in this outcome.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Winds stay below 20 knots through Sunday morning before increasing to
20 to 25 knots Sun afternoon. The wind then stays again below 20
knots Sunday night through the end of the forecast period as no
strong pressure systems are near the area.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...EK
MARINE...07