Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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375 FXUS63 KMQT 100514 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 114 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Canadian high pressure brings dry weather and chilly temperatures tonight and Monday night. Patchy frost is possible both nights. - A warming trend with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances are expected mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over southwest Quebec which moves to the Canadian Maritimes by 12z Mon. Clouds are slowly moving south with dry air just north of Lake Superior early this afternoon. This dry air will slowly move south and help to clear out the clouds and end the upslope north flow drizzle and light showers by this evening. There could be some patchy frost tonight in the interior west with clear skies and light winds leading to decent radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The work week starts off with an omega shape mid level pattern with a positively tilted ridge over the Upper Mississippi Valley that is stuck between a trough over the Lower Great Lakes/New England and another trough over Saskatchewan. As this pattern shifts east and breaks down through Tuesday night, the western trough passes over the UP late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Meanwhile, another trough moves off the Pacific on Tuesday into British Columbia. This trough then propagates east along the Canadian Prairie Provinces to the Upper Great Lakes for late next week. Hit and miss chances for showers continue the rest of the work week with broad troughing over the region. High pressure keeps the weather dry Monday through Tuesday morning. Temps warm up from the weekend into the 60s under sunny skies on Monday save for the eastern Lake Superior shores which stay cooler in the 50s. With increased mixing to around 900-850mb, higher mixing over the interior west, min RHs are expected in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Northerly winds will be stronger over the east (gusting up to 20-25mph) where RHs are not as low thanks to cooler onshore flow off Lake Superior; this does flirt with borderline elevated wildfire conditions, but mitigating our threat will be the antecedent wet environment courtesy of plenty of wet weather lately. The cool and dry airmass remains overhead for Monday night under clear skies yielding another period of below normal temps. Lows Monday night are expected in the mid 30s to mid 40s, warmer near the lakeshores. Some additional patchy frost is possible. On Tuesday, a mid level trough and associated sfc low move east from Manitoba to Ontario, with pretty robust positive theta-e advection out ahead of it as southerly flow tightens up. Resulting isentropic ascent, coupled with some weak PVA rippling out ahead of the approaching trough, could touch off some showers and storms across the western UP as early as Tuesday afternoon. However, most convection holds off until the evening as the associated cold front moves through. With latest model guidance indicating bulk shear around 30-35 kts and only a few hundred j/kg of CAPE by then, strong storms are not likely and severe potential remains very low as the cold front moves through. That said, if anything can develop earlier in the afternoon in the western UP, it could be worth monitoring given the warmer, more moist airmass. Descent behind the passing shortwave may lead to a brief period of drier weather into early Wednesday. However, troughing over the region through late week and passing embedded shortwaves tracking through, expect on and off rain chances later Wednesday at least through Friday. Global models are coming into agreement on ridging into next weekend, but as this starts to slide out Sunday, some PoPs do sneak in. Given uncertainty regarding timing this far out, have continued to lean NBM for PoPs the rest of the forecast period. Temperatures will feel more summer-ey the rest of the week, with highs ranging well into the 70s for most of the area Wed-Sun and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 111 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Skies have cleared across the UP with clear skies expected to prevail through the entire TAF period. There is a chance of fog for IWD, though. Light north winds prevail but light and variable winds are possible at CMX/IWD this morning and at SAW this evening as a high pressure ridge slides across the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Winds come in primarily out of the northwest the rest of today and through Monday morning. Gusts around 20-25kts are common across the eastern half of the lake, but with stronger ~30kt flow aloft, there is still a 40-60% chance for higher observing platforms to see gusts approach 30 kts until later this evening. As high pressure builds in from the northwest tonight into Monday, winds fall back below the 20 kt threshold. The next potential for winds to exceed 20 kts is Tuesday into Wednesday when a low pressure system tracks north of Lake Superior, but chances of winds exceeding 20 kts are low (20- 40%) given the stability over the lake. Winds fall below 20 knots by Thursday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...LC AVIATION...EK/TDUD MARINE...LC