Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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894 FXUS63 KMQT 091801 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain showers are expected today with breezy north winds gusting up to 20-30 mph, especially over the eastern U.P. - A Canadian high pressure brings dry weather and chilly temperatures tonight and Monday night. Patchy frost is possible both nights. - A warming trend with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances are expected mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over southwest Quebec which moves to the Canadian Maritimes by 12z Mon. Clouds are slowly moving south with dry air just north of Lake Superior early this afternoon. This dry air will slowly move south and help to clear out the clouds and end the upslope north flow drizzle and light showers by this evening. There could be some patchy frost tonight in the interior west with clear skies and light winds leading to decent radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 453 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The work week starts off with an omega shape mid level pattern with a positively tilted ridge over the Upper Mississippi Valley that is stuck between a trough over the Lower Great Lakes/New England and another trough over Saskatchewan. As this pattern shifts east and breaks down through Tuesday night, the western trough passes over the UP late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Meanwhile, another trough moves off the Pacific on Tuesday into British Columbia. This trough then propagates east along the Canadian Prairie Provinces to the Upper Great Lakes for late next week. Hit and miss chances for showers continue the rest of the work week with broad troughing over the region. Starting tonight, skies clear out and winds taper down as high pressure builds in from the northwest. A dry and cooler airmass moving in alongside light north to northwest winds will result in better radiational cooling. This will allow lows to settle in the 30s to lower 40s, coolest in the interior west where moisture erodes quicker and the lightest winds are located. With some spots potentially falling into the lower to mid 30s, some frost will be possible. High pressure keeps the weather dry through Tuesday morning. Temps warm up from the weekend into the 60s under sunny skies on Monday save for the eastern Lake Superior shores which stay cooler in the 50s. With increased mixing to around 900-850mb, higher mixing over the interior west, min RHs are expected in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Northerly winds will be stronger over the east (gusting up to 20- 25mph) where RHs are not as low thanks to cooler onshore flow off Lake Superior; this does flirt with borderline elevated wildfire conditions, but mitigating our threat will be the antecedent wet environment courtesy of plenty of wet weather lately. The cool and dry airmass remains overhead for Monday night under clear skies yielding another period of below normal temps. Lows Monday night are expected in the mid 30s to mid 40s, warmer near the lakeshores. Some additional patchy frost is possible. On Tuesday, a mid level trough and associated sfc low move east from Manitoba to Ontario bringing a cold front into the western UP in the late morning/early afternoon. This cold front coupled some isentropic ascent and weak PVA from a shortwave rotating around the trough will support a line of showers and potentially some storms moving east across the UP into Tuesday night. Ahead of this, expect increasing southerly flow and warmer temperatures generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s. With latest model guidance indicating bulk shear around 30-35 kts and minimal CAPE (<200 J/kg), strong storms are not likely and severe potential remains very low (<5%). A second cold front dropping southeast over the UP late Tuesday night into Wednesday does leave some potential for additional shower chances. With troughing over the region through late week and passing embedded shortwaves tracking through, expect on and off rain chances at least through Friday. Highs through the rest of the work week are generally expected in the upper 60s to 70s with lows in the upper 40s to 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 MVFR cigs will imrpove to VFR conditions later this afternoon which lasts through the rest of the TAF period at all sites. Will start to improve first at CMX and last at SAW. && .MARINE... Issued at 453 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 West winds veer northwest this morning, increasing to 20 to 25 kts over the east half of the lake as a jet streak passes overhead. There is a 40-60% chance for higher observing platforms to see gusts approach 30 kts during the day. As high pressure builds in from the northwest tonight into Monday, winds fall back below the 20 kt threshold. The next potential for winds to exceed 20 kts is Tuesday into Wednesday when a low pressure system tracks north of Lake Superior, but chances of winds exceeding 20 kts are low (20-40%) given the stability over the lake. Winds fall below 20 kts again midweek. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...Jablonski AVIATION...07 MARINE...Jablonski