Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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220 FXUS63 KMQT 090851 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 451 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain showers are expected today with breezy north winds gusting up to 20-30 mph, especially over the eastern U.P. - A Canadian high pressure brings dry weather and chilly temperatures Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Patchy frost is possible Sunday night. - A warming trend with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances are expected mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... Issued at 451 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A persistent low pressure system can still be seen rotating over Ontario on the latest water vapor imagery. This disturbance is responsible for scattered rain showers moving northwest to southeast across central-eastern portions of Upper Michigan on current radar mosaic. Meanwhile, ground-based obs are indicating a wind shift to the northwest as an associated cold front also pushes through Upper Michigan this morning. And, northerly winds will become breezy by this afternoon with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. This will keep temperatures well below normal today with highs only topping off in the upper 40s/low 50s (north) to upper 50s/low 60s (south). The outlier will be far southern Menominee County, which could climb into the mid 60s. With a saturated environment consistent in forecast soundings through mid-afternoon, expect the cloudy skies/rain showers to linger most of the day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The extended forecast period begins with broad troughing extending from eastern Canada through the Great Lakes. This setup evolves into an omega shape by the start of the work week with positively tilted ridge over the Upper Mississippi Valley stuck between a trough over the Lower Great Lakes and another trough over Saskatchewan. As this pattern shifts east next week, the western trough passes over the UP later in the day Tuesday into Tuesday night. Meanwhile, another trough beginning to move towards the Pacific Northwest today propagates east along the Canadian Prairie Provinces to the Upper Great Lakes for mid to late next week, sending two shortwaves over the area. Hit and miss chances for showers continue the rest of the work week with broad troughing over the region. Chances for showers continue on Sunday as a cold front drops south of the UP. Cool north flow behind the front looks to keep temps below normal throughout the day in the 50s to mid 60s, warmest in south central Upper MI. That said, those along the eastern Lake Superior shores may never get out of the 40s all day. Northerly upslope flow with an uptick in moisture noted in the model soundings and PWATs increasing from around 0.7" to 0.9" will support mostly cloudy skies and light rain showers through the day. As high pressure begins to build in from the northwest, the UP dries out by the evening. A ~40 kt LLJ passing over the eastern CWA will help yield some breezy gusts up to 25-30 mph. Skies clear out into Sunday night while winds turn calmer. Dry air, a cooler airmass, and light winds will allow for better radiational cooling and lows ranging in the 30s to lower 40s across much of the area. With some spots potentially falling into the lower to mid 30s (particularly throughout the interior-western and north-central UP), some frost will be possible. High pressure keeps the weather dry through Tuesday morning. Temps warm up from the weekend into the 60s under sunny skies on Monday. With increased mixing to around 900-800mb, higher mixing over the interior west, min RHs are expected in the mid 20s to mid 30s (drier away from the lakeshores and in the interior west). Gusts will be stronger over the east where RHs are not as low; this does flirt with borderline elevated wildfire conditions, but mitigating our threat will be the antecedent wet environment courtesy of plenty of wet weather lately. The next round of showers and storms moves in from the west on Tuesday as a mid level trough moves east from Manitoba to Ontario. The shortwave rotating around it will support a surface low tracking east along the international border from Manitoba to just north of Lake Superior into Tuesday night. Ahead of this, expect increasing southerly flow and warmer temperatures generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The cold front tracking east during the evening will yield showers and perhaps some thunderstorms through the evening and hte first half of the night. While bulk shear increases to around 40kts by Tuesday afternoon, little CAPE leaves severe potential low. With troughing over the region through late week and passing embedded shortwaves tracking through, expect on and off rain chances at least through Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The same slow-moving low pressure system over Ontario continues to bring a few isolated light rain showers to Upper Michigan tonight, but most places stay dry most of the time. The main feature of interest for this time period is a seasonably strong cold front pushing south across the terminals Sunday morning with winds backing northerly and a batch of low MVFR to IFR cigs expected at all terminals. Northerly upslope flow at SAW may even allow for a brief period of LIFR cigs. Minor vsby restrictions in drizzle/mist are possible at all terminals, but are most likely at SAW. Rapid clearing is expected late on Sunday as a much drier air mass moves into the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 West winds are expected to remain at or below 20 kts through Sunday morning. Winds increase to 20 to 25 kts, veering northwest, by Sunday afternoon over the east half of the lake as a jet streak passes overhead. There is a 40-60% chance for higher observing platforms over the eastern 3rd of the lake to see gusts approach 30 kts on Sunday. As high pressure builds in from the northwest into Monday, winds fall back below the 20 kt threshold. The next potential for winds to exceed 20 kts is Tuesday into Wednesday when a low pressure system tracks north of Lake Superior, but chances of winds exceeding 20 kts are low (<30%) given the stability over the lake. Winds fall below 20 kts again midweek. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...LC AVIATION...EK MARINE...LC