914
FXUS64 KMRX 111500
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1100 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Overall, the forecast remains in good shape this morning. Only
made minor changes to hourly temperatures based on recent
guidance. This lead to minimal changes in the high temperature
forecast of roughly 1-3 degrees higher than previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Key Messages:

1. Early morning clouds southwest Virginia/northeast Tennessee,
otherwise mostly clear.

Discussion:

Satellite and area observations show broken areas of clouds for
southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee early this morning as a
short-wave moves east. Otherwise, dry northwest flow aloft and
surface ridging will produce dry, clear, and warm days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Key Messages:

1. A hot pattern sets up through the weekend, with well above normal
temperatures expected, potentially near record highs.

2. Dry weather expected through the weekend, then rain chances may
return next week.

Discussion:

Wednesday will be the start of a warming trend that will continue
through the end of the week. A low level ridge will be over the area
to start the period, with a weak westerly flow aloft. Temperatures
on Wednesday will be close to normal. The flow will become more
amplified on Thursday as a large high pressure ridge builds to our
west, with troughing off the East Coast. This ridge will slowly
shift east and be over the TN Valley/southern Appalachian region
through the weekend. Dry and hot conditions can be expected with the
subsidence under the ridge. Highs will be in the 90s for most
locations outside the mountains on Saturday and Sunday. We could see
highs close to records at CHA, particularly on Friday as the record
that day is 97. Sunday will likely have the highest heat index as
the surface high shifts east of the Appalachians and a southerly
flow brings higher dewpoints. The heat index may exceed 100 for the
southern Valley on Sunday.

Forecast confidence decreases on Monday as the models show a
tropical wave spreading north from the Gulf. With the ridge expected
to be located near the Outer Banks, this moisture should stay west
of our area for the most part, affecting the MS Valley region, but
there may be enough low level moisture and instability for some
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An area of broken 5kft cloud cover over parts of southwest
Virginia/northeast Tennessee that may move across TRI the next
couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the forecast
period at all TAF sites.

Winds will be northerly generally less than 10kts as surface
ridging builds into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             84  60  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  57  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  57  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  52  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM....DGS
AVIATION...DH