012
FXUS64 KMRX 110530
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
130 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Overall, the forecast is fairly on track with only minor changes
made. With the dry air in place and good conditions for
subsidence, temperatures and dew points have fallen quicker than
expected. Based on these trends, the values were reduced through
the evening with the overall minimum values kept the same. The
main focus overnight will be fog, which has already developed in
southwest North Carolina.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Troughing over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states has our area
under a cool northwesterly flow and fair weather, including
comfortable temps running maybe 3-5 degrees below normal tonight
and Tuesday. High pressure begins to build to our west Tuesday,
not close enough to impact our temps just yet. Enjoy it, because a
mini heatwave is coming midweek! See below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Key Messages:

1. Temperatures begin to trend warmer Wednesday onward. Low to mid
90`s possible in lower elevations of Tennessee by the end of the
week and weekend.

2. Strong high pressure building overhead should keep us dry much of
the week into parts of the weekend. Uncertainty grows though on the
weekend with tropical moisture brewing south along the Gulf Coast
and a cold front to the north.

Discussion:

Upper level ridging will be underway when we start the long term
period Tuesday night. Wednesday will be the last day where
temperatures are expected to be around normal. Ridging aloft
expected to squeeze between two upper lows as it amplifies and
migrates north and east the rest of the week. Strong surface high
pressure will build over the Ohio Valley, eventually moving to the
Mid-Atlantic by midweek. This is evident in 850 temps reaching or
exceeding 20 deg C. In other words, low to mid 90`s possible during
this time. The heat index or feel like temperatures, could possibly
reach the mid to upper 90`s during the peak heating timeframe.
Currently, the hottest day is Sunday with heat index values near 100
in parts of the southern valley, for example.

With strong ridging from aloft to the surface, no precipitation is
forecast through at least early Saturday. The forecast that
completely changed up 24 hours ago or so still holds strong with
"hot and dry" being the BLUF, so to speak. Another forecast aspect
holding strong is the upper low expected to dive SE into the Gulf
from the CO Rockies. Coastal locations, including Florida will see
copious rainfall amounts, while we stay completely dry with locked
in ridging.

Uncertainty does increase, however, this coming weekend with a cold
front to our north and the tropical moisture south of us. Shower and
thunderstorm probabilities increase Saturday through the last day of
the period with isolated to scattered in the forecast. But, a closed
upper high will center over us from the desert southwest by Saturday
which may hinder any sort of precipitation. Will see how this
changes and evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Broken areas of 5-8kft clouds across TRI, otherwise mostly clear
at TYS and CHA. Short-wave is moving across the region early this
morning and will be east of the area for today. Clouds will
dissipate with VFR conditions anticipated throughout the forecast
period.

Winds will be mainly northerly 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             84  60  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  79  56  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       79  56  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              76  52  83  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...DH