422
FXUS64 KMRX 112358
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
758 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Key Message:

1. Warming trend into Wednesday as temperatures return to near
normal.

Discussion:

High pressure remains in control across the region, with dry
conditions and mild temperatures among a weak cu field. Guidance
suggests a weak shortwave swinging through the Great Lakes will
result in upper level cirrus increasing tonight. For Wednesday,
minor height increases and H85 temperatures will translate to a
slight warming trend at the surface. Recent CAM guidance hints that
a isolated light shower cannot be totally ruled out in the higher
elevations during peak heating, however, those in valley locations
will remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Key Messages:

1. Summer temperatures will be arriving later this week and
continuing through the weekend.

2. Strong upper level high pressure building over the area will keep
things mostly dry through the weekend.

Discussion: At the beginning of this period on Wednesday evening,
our area is under an upper northwest flow with high pressure in
control at the surface.  In the Desert Southwestern U.S., there is
an upper ridge that is supporting a heat wave in that area.  As we
step through the week, this upper ridge heads quickly east and comes
over us for this weekend, and bringing a lot of hot weather with it.

A very weak cold front sags through the area around Friday, bringing
another presence of surface high pressure that will help keep the
area dry and dew points lower.  But by Sunday as the surface High
and Ridge move east a return flow from the Gulf of Mexico starts up
and then the moisture starts combining with the heat already in the
area.

Current Max Temps in our forecast are staying a few degrees below
records, but it should be the hottest weather of the season.  Sunday
looks the hottest with afternoon Heat Index values near 100 degrees
from Chattanooga through Knoxville, and regular air temperatures in
the mid 90s.

By the early parts of next week, there are different model solutions
with the upper ridge, whether it stays in place and keeps us hot and
dry or if it moves away or weakens allowing better precip chances.

As far as adjustments to initial grid population--shaved off the
dewpoints a degree or two for most of the days while the upper high
and dry weather hold, and for next Monday bumped up the Max Temps a
couple of degrees due to continued hot conditions seem like they
will be sluggish to release.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR expected with high pressure strengthening overhead this week.
Light or calm winds expected as a result, as well as high cloud
decks at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  88  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  85  64  90 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       56  86  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              53  83  61  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS
LONG TERM....GM
AVIATION...KS