410
FXUS66 KMTR 060012
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
512 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Hot again today as the heatwave peaks. A couple of degrees cooler
Thursday, followed by further cooling Friday. Above average
temperatures hang around through the weekend. Another potential
hot period mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Temperature today running pretty well in line with the forecast.
Based off of temperatures yesterday, kept today`s forecast nudged
toward the 90th percentile. Many locations will see highs today
very similar to yesterday, a few degrees higher for areas south of
the SF Bay Area. The only exception would be the immediate
coastline where onshore flow is battling to keep the shallow
marine layer intact. These areas are running a couple of degrees
cooler. By Thursday, a shortwave trough around the periphery of a
deep upper low in the Gulf of Alaska traverses through the West
Coast, deepening the marine layer a bit and slightly enhancing the
onshore flow. This will cool temperatures further for most
locations, aside from the far inland spots like interior Napa, far
eastern Alameda and Contra Costa, and interior Monterey/San
Benito.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The Heat Advisory expires at midnight Thursday night with further
deepening of the marine layer and additional cooling expected by
Friday into the weekend. Above average temperatures persist
through the weekend as upper level ridging dominates the pattern
over the west. However, persistent onshore flow and a weak trough
over the eastern Pacific should moderate our temps enough to keep
them a bit lower into early next week. The middle of next week
looks like our next potentially impactful warm period as the ridge
builds once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 446 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals this afternoon. Generally speaking
VFR conditions at most terminals through the taf period. Will be
watching a southerly surge sneeking up the coast bringing clouds
into Monterye Bay early Thursday. Other guidance hints at some low
clouds around the region, but confidence is too low to include
them in the taf.  For now will carry a few/sct group.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with moderate winds. Winds are much less
than 24 hours ago and th 01s should be below threshold for
crosswinds. At this time decided to include a few-sct group
tomorrow morning inside SF Bay for potential cigs.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through late tonight. Low clouds near
Pt Conception will sneek up the Big Sur coast tonight and early
tomorrow. Models are typically too slow with arrival and speed of
southerly surges. Therefore, put a tempo for MRY as cigs sneak
around the peninsula and put prevailing for SNS. Low confidence
for overall southerly surge outcome.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 446 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Moderate to locally stronger northerly winds will persist over the
coastal waters as high pressure remains over the Eastern Pacific.
A moderate period Northwest swell will continue impact the
coastal waters through Thursday. Swell will diminish Friday
through Saturday before waves build again towards the end of the
period.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 505 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Wednesday morning
through Thursday evening.

Forecast remains on track. Moderate period swell is entering the
coastal waters at 14-17 seconds with heights varying 7-11 feet.
Thw would generate breaking waves of 8-15 feet with locally higher
waves at favored break points. Sneaker waves can run over 100 ft
up a dry beach, pulling people in the water from rocks, jetties,
and beaches. Inexperienced swimmers should stay out of the water.
Observe the ocean for 20 minutes before relaxing on the beach. The
hot weather inland will lead to more people visiting the beach
this week. Know where lifeguards are, obey their instructions, and
never turn your back on the ocean!

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Record high temperatures at the long term climate stations for
June 5th:

Station             June 5th

Santa Rosa         102 in 1926
Kentfield          102 in 1926
Napa               105 in 1903
Richmond            86 in 1983
Livermore          104 in 1926
San Francisco       95 in 1883
SFO Airport         89 in 1972
Redwood City        97 in 2002, 1972
Half Moon Bay       74 in 1958
Oakland downtown    87 in 2002
San Jose           100 in 1926
Salinas Airport     87 in 1949
King City          105 in 1926

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-530.

     Heat Advisory until midnight PDT Thursday night for CAZ503-504-
     506-510-512>516-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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