309
FXUS66 KMTR 110553
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1053 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The warm up begins today with hot temperatures expected over the
next few days. Starting Thursday, the cool down begins as
troughing resumes.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The forecast remains on track with the warming trend expected to
continue through midweek. Current observations depict inland
temperature running on average 5 to 10 degrees warmer at this hour
than 24 hrs ago. Along the immediate coast however temperatures
are running 1 to 4 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago as a direct
result of the onshore marine influence.

No changes were made to the forecast this evening. Above normal
temperatures will remain the dominant weather concern into Tuesday
with the current Heat Advisory going into effect at 11:00 am
Tuesday morning and continuing through 8:00 pm Tuesday evening
across the interior portions of warning area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Temperatures are starting to heat up inland with current
observations, as of 1PM, showing temperatures in the upper 70s to
mid 80s. However, we still have a few more hours of heating to go
this afternoon with highs expected to peak in the mid 80s to low 90s
across inland areas. Minor to moderate heat risk continues
throughout most of the Bay Area through the rest of Monday. For
those along the coast, an impressive stratus layer helped to keep
temperatures on the cooler side this morning. High temperatures in
areas close to the shoreline will be in the mid 70s to low 80s while
highs directly along the coast will largely be in the low to mid
60s. Temperatures will cool off fairly quickly this evening as
breezy onshore flow returns with overnight lows in the 50s expected.
Overcast conditions look to return overnight, particularly within
the Monterey Bay region and along the SF peninsula, with patchy fog
possible along the Central Coast and portions of the North Bay.

Looking forward to Tuesday, upper level ridging will continue to
build and tomorrow`s high temperatures will be the peak of the heat
wave. Inland temperatures will range from the mid 80s to upper 90s
with the hottest regions (portions of North Bay, East Bay Hills, and
portions of interior Monterey and San Benito counties) reaching into
the low 100s. Coastal highs will be cooler thanks to continued weak
onshore flow with temperatures peaking in the mid 60s to low 70s.
It will be fairly dry across the interior with daytime RH values
dropping into the low 20s to low 30s. The HeatRisk product shows
moderate impacts over much of the Bay Area and interior Central
Coast. The hottest areas of the North and East Bays are expected to
experience major heat risk which will impact all who are sensitive
to heat (ill, young, elderly, pregnant) and those who are without
adequate cooling and/or hydration. As such, a Heat Advisory has been
issued from 11AM to 8PM on Tuesday across interior portions of the
Bay Area and Central Coast.

For anyone participating in outdoors activities today and tomorrow,
remember to drink plenty of water and to take plenty of breaks in a
cool/shaded area. For anyone planning to visit the coast or a nearby
body of water: remember to weak a life jacket, ideally swim near a
lifeguard, and be aware of the risks of cold water shock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Overnight low temperatures on Tuesday night will range from the mid
50s to low 60s throughout the Bay Area and Central Coast. High
temperatures on Wednesday will still be hot but we will at least be
over the peak of the heat wave. Wednesday`s highs will range from
the mid 80s to mid 90s inland with a few areas potentially reaching
the upper 90s. Wednesday marks the last day with widespread moderate
heat risk as upper level ridging moves out of the area. Thursday
through Sunday, widespread minor heat risk continues and inland
highs will drop back into the 80s to low 90s. For coastal areas,
high temperatures will continue to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s as
onshore flow continues.

Gustier, drier conditions look possible this weekend. Remember to
exercise caution when using a campfire and grills/smokers to prevent
sparks from reaching ignition sources as recent grass fires
(Crystal Fire, Corral Fire) have shown small fuels (such as
grasses) are nearly dry and are becoming more susceptible to
burning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A look at satellite this evening shows mostly clear skies across the
region with coastal clouds beginning to creep inland down the
Salinas Valley, and inland through the Golden Gate gap. The Ft. Ord
and Bodega Bay Profilers show the marine layer currently around 1000
and 400 feet, respectively, and compressing as a warmer and drier
air mass begins to form aloft.

Otherwise, its currently VFR across the region, with the exception
of Monterey Bay. However, expect coastal terminals to develop
IFR/LIFR ceilings overnight tonight as the low coastal clouds
continue to push inland, and high pressure developing continually
compresses the marine layer. This compression will result in cloud
ceilings lowering through the nighttime, ushering in the LIFR
conditions for select terminals, especially Monterey Bay. Light
winds are expected overnight, but will generally be out of the west,
helping to deliver and transport these clouds inland. Beyond
sunrise, coastal clouds will begin to mix out, leading to widespread
VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period. Winds will
increase to become onshore and breezy in the afternoon today.


Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR, with moderate confidence on
maintaining VFR conditions through the nighttime. Low clouds
filtering through the Golden Gate gap may form SCT-FEW clouds around
the terminal, but confidence is low in them forming a ceiling.
Additionally, as the marine layer continues to compress, thoughts
are that clouds will be prevented from filtering in through the San
Bruno gap, thereby lessening the chances of ceiling formation at the
terminal. Winds light overnight tonight, then increasing into the
afternoon out of the W/NW and breezy around 13 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR conditions will persist through at
least sunrise, with visibility expected to decrease throughout the
night as cloud ceilings continually lower through the night,
eventually resulting in fog formation in the early morning of
Tuesday. Beyond sunrise, expectation is that these low clouds will
begin to mix out and evaporate, leading to VFR conditions through
the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 824 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes along with rough seas
continue to prevail over the outer waters. Winds increase through
mid-week and again into the weekend with gale-force gusts
expected over the outer waters. Significant wave heights will
mostly be dominated by wind driven waves, though there is a
moderate northwesterly swell and a low southwesterly swell mixed
in.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ504-506-510-
     513>515-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...Sarment

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