744
FXUS66 KMTR 040611
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1101 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1256 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Temperatures remain at or slightly below seasonal averages today.
Tomorrow sees a dramatic warmup with a Heat Advisory in effect for
the inland areas through Thursday. Temperatures will moderate
towards the latter part of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Today was the last "coolish" day of the week. Another cloudy
start this morning with a patchy marine layer, persistent onshore
flow, and filtered sunshine due to high clouds overhead, led to
another seasonably cool day. Max temps were generally 5 to 15
degrees below seasonal average or in the upper 50s to lower 70s
coast/bays and upper 60s to low 80s inland. Speaking of onshore
flow, the SFO-SAC exceeded 4mb again today. Onshore winds were
strong, but not as strong as yesterday. Peak gusts topped out in
the mid 40 mph range  - typical spots of gaps and passes.

For the rest of tonight - not update needed. The real question
tonight will be the extent of the marine layer. As noted by the
Aviation section below, the most favored location will be around
Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast. Otherwise, as high pressure builds
in high clouds will continue to spill over the ridge.

Did made adjustments to overnight lows through midweek, especially
in the hills. The combination of hot daytime temperates and mild
overnight lows will exacerbate any HeatRisk concerns. For those
seeking relief by heading to the beach Wednesday and Thursday use
caution as building surf will lead to hazardous conditions. A
beach hazard statement is now in effect.

MM

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1256 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The morning started pretty cloudy across the region as mid- to high
level clouds stemming from a cold front coming through the Pacific
Northwest came through the region. Several stations recorded coastal
and orographically forced drizzle this morning, but accumulations
topped out at a few hundredths of an inch. Current satellite imagery
is showing breaks in the cloud cover as the high clouds move away,
while as far as satellite imagery and observations show, lower
clouds linger mainly along the coast of western San Mateo County and
scattered throughout the coastal ranges. Breezy northwest winds will
continue today with winds gusting to 20 to 30 miles per hour at the
gaps and passes. Temperatures remain at or slightly below seasonal
averages, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s along the
coast, to the mid 60s to lower 70s at the Bayshore, and the mid 70s
to lower 80s in the inland valleys. Low temperatures will hover
between the low to mid 50s, with the upper 50s expected in the
inland portions of the North and East Bays.

Tuesday sees a pattern change as a ridge building in the eastern
pacific impacts our state. High temperatures will warm quite
dramatically with 10-20 degree increases expected across the region.
High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid 60s to lower
70s at the immediate coast, to the upper 70s to mid 80s along the
Bayshore, and in the 90s for the inland valleys with the warmest
locations reaching 100. A Heat Advisory comes into effect Tuesday
for the inland North Bay and East Bay, extending into Thursday.
Moderate HeatRisk (corresponding to a risk for heat-related
illnesses for sensitive populations, such as children, the elderly,
pregnant women, the ill, or those working outdoors) is expected for
most of the inland Bay Area and Central Coast, with patches of Major
HeatRisk (corresponding to a risk for heat-related illnesses for
most people without adequate cooling or hydration) for the North Bay
valleys. Here are some heat safety tips:

* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids.
* Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing.
* Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade.
* Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles.
* Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1256 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The heat event peaks on Wednesday with temperatures in the interior
expected to remain in the mid 90s to lower 100s, with highs in the
mid 60s to lower 70s expected at the coast. The Heat Advisory will
extend to the South Bay and the inland Central Coast on Wednesday.
The Southern Salinas Valley is now included in the second Heat
Advisory as confidence in heat impacts has grown.

Heat impacts will continue through Thursday, especially in the
interior where moderate HeatRisk continues through the day, but most
people should start to see a gradual cooldown as the ridge moves
towards the north and east, allowing a weak trough to impact our
region. A more noticeable cooldown begins on Friday, and by the
upcoming weekend, high temperatures are expected to moderate to the
mid 80s to lower 90s for the inland valleys and the upper 50s to mid
60s closer to the coast. CPC outlooks continue to show a lean
towards temperatures above seasonal averages into the middle part of
June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR except patchy stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ along the immediate
coastline overnight and Tuesday morning. The NAM forecasts the ACV-
SFO pressure gradient (northerly wind) to strengthen to nearly 9 mb
by later today, the UKI-STS pressure gradient strong at 2 mb to 3
mb. Local influxes of cooler marine air continuing nearest the
immediate coastline, for example statistical guidance is forecasting
a gusty west wind to around 30 knots at KSFO this afternoon and
evening.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind 10 to 15 knots overnight and
Tuesday morning, increasing to 22 to 32 knots beginning 21z Tuesday
and continuing to mid-late evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. West to northwest winds 5 to 12
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 859 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A ridge extends NE from subtropical high pressure towards the
Oregon coast. The gradient between this high pressure and lower
pressure over the SW US is supporting a fresh to strong NW breeze
tonight. Over the next few days, conditions will gradually worsen.
The high pressure will push closer to the coast, tightening the
gradient and causing winds to increase to a strong breeze on
Tuesday. Meanwhile, large NW swell generated from a storm off the
coast of Canada will arrive in the coastal waters of Northern and
Central California. These rough seas will last through Thursday.
Conditions will then gradually improve going into the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 859 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Wednesday morning
through Thursday evening.

A moderate-rough NW swell will arrive Wednesday and create large
breaking waves and an increased risk for sneaker waves. Breaking
waves will reach as high as 15-20 ft, especially along steep
beaches. Sneaker waves can run over 100 ft up a dry beach, pulling
people in the water from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Inexperienced
swimmers should stay out of the water. Observe the ocean for 20
minutes before relaxing on the beach. The hot weather inland will
lead to more people visiting the beach this week. Know where
lifeguards are, obey their instructions, and never turn your back
on the ocean!

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 127 AM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Record high temperatures at the long term climate stations for
June 4th and 5th:

Station             June 4th             June 5th

Santa Rosa          98 in 1949           102 in 1926
Kentfield          101 in 1981           102 in 1926
Napa               102 in 1981           105 in 1903
Richmond            90 in 1955            86 in 1983
Livermore          105 in 1960           104 in 1926
San Francisco       92 in 1949            95 in 1883
SFO Airport         92 in 1955, 1949      89 in 1972
Redwood City       100 in 1981            97 in 2002, 1972
Half Moon Bay       71 in 1955            74 in 1958
Oakland downtown    96 in 1981            87 in 2002
San Jose            98 in 1904           100 in 1926
Salinas Airport     92 in 1949            87 in 1949
King City          102 in 1981, 1957     105 in 1926

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday morning through Thursday
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-530.

     Heat Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to midnight PDT Thursday night
     for CAZ503-504-506-510-515.

     Heat Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to midnight PDT Thursday night
     for CAZ513-514-516-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Flynn

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