425
FXUS66 KMTR 051736
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1036 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Hot inland, while cooler at the immediate coast today. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for inland areas today through Thursday.
Temperatures moderating towards the latter part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

An area of low ceiling stratus and/or fog was working its way
southward over the coastal waters and may briefly reach or form
along the coastline through daybreak. Otherwise the sky is clear
over the forecast area. On microphysics satellite imagery a coastally
trapped southerly wind reversal with fog is moving north of Point
Conception, though based on recent observations and current model
output it should have trouble reaching northward today since there`s
a fair amount of surface high pressure prevailing to our northwest,
e.g. the ACV-SFO pressure gradient is moderate at 6.7 mb. Though
it`s still a good idea to closely monitor the SMX-SFO and SBA-SFO
pressure gradients.

High pressure and large scale sinking motion continues with the
apex of 500 mb heights ~ 590 decameters with the high pressure
system moving to our east later today. 850 mb temperatures are
forecast to rise a couple more degrees today nearing 24 Celsius
and will however hold nearly steady through Friday afternoon, this
is close to the max moving average on Oakland upper air long term
climatology in early June.

Surface heating after sun rise today will connect with the
aforementioned warm lower level temperatures i.e. 850 mb (and 925 mb)
levels boosting highs today mainly above to well above early June
normal high temperatures. Due to a maritime influence highs will
be coolest along the immediate coastline/beaches with 70s to a few
warmer spots not far from the beaches in the lower 80s, then
inland just a bit bayside highs will be 80 to 90 with lower 90s
just away from the SF Bay. Farthest inland away from any maritime
influence highs today will be in the 90s to near 100 degrees.

The Heat Advisory continues today for much of the Bay Area and north
Central Coast except along the immediate coastline and along the SF
Bay Shoreline.

Here are some heat safety tips:

* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids.
* Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing.
* Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade.
* Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles.
* Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The Heat Advisory continues Thursday for the same locations as
today. Then late in the week and over the weekend improving chances
of afternoon and evening onshore breezes develop, inland daytime
highs will lower back to near typical highs for this time in June,
also reducing heat risks. Weak upper level troughing arrives late
in the week and weekend, how this upper level trough then may evolve
is a low confidence forecast per divergence in model solutions for
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals with not a cloud in the sky. Winds
will remain onshore through the TAF period. Moderate confidence in
VFR through the TAF period. The increase in onshore flow will result
in higher relative humidities and thus lower dew point depressions.
Confidence is not high on if the terminals will see any reduction in
flight category through the TAF period; however, with the pattern
being dominated by high pressure, the most likely outcome would be
LIFR conditions in the early-to-mid morning hours with greater
confidence of occurrence at terminals immediately adjacent to the
coast.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with easterly flow. Moderate
confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Winds will transition to
become westerly and gusty this afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots
to be expected. Winds will diminish overnight and remain westerly
through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at
both terminals. Winds will prevail out of the west for MRY and out
of the northwest for SNS. Low to moderate confidence on VFR through
the TAF period at both terminals with higher confidence in SNS than
MRY.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1034 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will allow
for  moderate to strong northwesterly breezes to prevail through
the  period. Significant wave heights will continue to build to 10
to 15  feet today with an abating trend set for Thursday through
Saturday  before significant wave heights build again towards the
end of the  period.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 415 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Wednesday morning
through Thursday evening.

A moderate-rough NW swell will arrive today and create large
breaking waves and an increased risk for sneaker waves. Breaking
waves will reach as high as 15 ft, especially along steep beaches.
Sneaker waves can run over 100 ft up a dry beach, pulling people
in the water from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Inexperienced
swimmers should stay out of the water. Observe the ocean for 20
minutes before relaxing on the beach. The hot weather inland will
lead to more people visiting the beach this week. Know where
lifeguards are, obey their instructions, and never turn your back
on the ocean!

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Record high temperatures at the long term climate stations for
June 5th:

Station             June 5th

Santa Rosa         102 in 1926
Kentfield          102 in 1926
Napa               105 in 1903
Richmond            86 in 1983
Livermore          104 in 1926
San Francisco       95 in 1883
SFO Airport         89 in 1972
Redwood City        97 in 2002, 1972
Half Moon Bay       74 in 1958
Oakland downtown    87 in 2002
San Jose           100 in 1926
Salinas Airport     87 in 1949
King City          105 in 1926

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-530.

     Heat Advisory until midnight PDT Thursday night for CAZ503-504-
     506-510-512>516-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
     Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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