907
FXUS66 KMTR 251733
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1033 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1259 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

Cool with abundant overnight stratus through the weekend. Warming
and drying trend set for next week with temperatures around
seasonal normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

May gray in full effect this morning across the Bay Area and
Central Coast with widespread clouds, drizzle, and patchy fog.
Enough onshore flow is present that may gray filtered through the
Delta and up the Sacramento Valley. Morning balloon sounding out
of Oakland Airport puts the moist marine layer depth at 3k ft,
which is definitely on the upper end of marine layer depths.
Patchy fog: a few automated sensors have visibilities bouncing
between 3-5 miles. Patchy fog is also being seen on Bay Area
webcams. Drizzle: as noted below enough lift overhead led to
precipitation last night through early this morning. It was more
than just few wet roads as rain gages tipped a few hundredths to
as much at two tenths. Impressive to say the least with weak
forcing and moist low levels.

For the rest of the day - a gradual thinning of inland clouds will
continue through mid-late morning. Coastal areas will be the last
to clear out. In fact, hi-res guidance suggests that locations
around Monterey Bay and SF Peninsula Coast will struggle to clear
with patchy clouds lingering through much of the day.

No update needed this morning.

MM

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1259 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

Deep, moist marine layer this morning allowing for stratus to push
well inland. Additionally, a weak passing trough has provided
just enough lift to bring drizzle to areas along the coast and in
the hills. Several locations along the SF Peninsula, East Bay
hills, and Central Coast have actually measured a few hundredths
of an inch here and there as a result. Skies will gradually clear
inland today with some coastal locations remaining in the clouds.
Another cool day with afternoon highs similar to yesterday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1259 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

Warming and drying trend starts Sunday into the middle of next
week as a broad ridge builds across the West Coast. Afternoon
highs expected to be near seasonal normals by mid-to-late week.
Typical onshore flow pattern persists with overnight and morning
clouds clearing back to the shoreline each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

Satellite highlights a slow clearing of the broad spread of low
clouds across most terminals. A mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR. most
terminals will become VFR between 19-21Z, with lower confidence on
clearing time for Monterey Bay terminals. Stratus will return
tonight with a chance that all terminals, except Monterey Bay will
remain as low as MVFR ceiling heights through the night until Sunday
morning. Onshore winds will become breezy this afternoon with
possible gust up to 25 knots through the valleys and gaps. Winds
return to moderate overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR ceilings with expected clearing time around
20-21Z. Onshore winds will remain breezy with gusts up to 25 kt this
afternoon before returning to moderate overnight. MVFR conditions
are expected to return overnight with timing a bit uncertain, but
models agree between 07-08Z.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR conditions prevail with moderate
confidence of clearing to VFR near 21Z. Westerly/Northwesterly winds
will become breezy this afternoon before returning to relatively
moderate overnight. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to return this
evening/early tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1032 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

Fresh northwest breeze over the outer waters persists through the
weekend creating hazardous conditions for small crafts. Fresh to
strong northwest and onshore winds across the coastal waters and
bays during the afternoons by early to mid next week. Wave heights
beginning to increase mid-work week up to 11-13 feet. Otherwise
mostly quiet marine conditions through the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

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