Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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079 FXUS63 KOAX 101946 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 246 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmest days of the year so far Wednesday and Thursday. Heat index values of 95 to 100 across much of the area Wednesday and 100 to 105 across portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Thursday. - Showers and a few storms possible tonight into Tuesday (20-40% chance). Higher chances for stronger to severe storms arrive Wednesday (northeast Nebraska) and Thursday (southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa). - Details remain unclear, but we`ll have daily storm chances Friday into next week with potential for strong to severe storms at times. - Warm weather expected to stick around for the weekend and much of next week (highs in the upper 80s and 90s). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Pretty quiet across the region early this afternoon with an upper level ridge axis just to our west. Temperatures as of 2 PM were in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Meanwhile to our west, a shortwave trough was pushing across MT/WY with a surface front in its vicinity. This front will eventually work into the area tonight into early Tuesday, bringing scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated storms. However, moisture and instability really taper off as you move east into our area, so expect precip to diminish fairly quickly as it moves in, which is shown fairly well by the latest CAMs. Guidance does suggest some instability builds along the boundary during the day, so could eventually see some redevelopment along the boundary later in the day, but most should stay dry. While Tuesday will be warmer than today (highs in the mid to upper 80s), Wednesday really marks the beginning of notably warmer temperatures as southerly flow strengthens and ushers in widespread 90s with mid 60s dewpoints. As a result, expect heat index values to be in the mid 90s to around 100. In addition, plenty of instability (3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE) will be in place for storms as a cold front pushes through SD and into MN/IA. Guidance hints that portions of northeast NE could be clipped by these storms and while the instability alone would likely be enough for some strong to severe storms, shear sufficient for storm organization will also be present in that area. Really the main question will be if we get enough forcing for storms go up in our area. If we do, large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. The storm chances will continue Thursday as the surface boundary pushes south and stalls somewhere within a few counties of the NE/KS border. Wherever this sets up will see a severe weather threat, with plenty of instability in place once again and deep layer shear near and just north of the boundary being sufficient for supercells. In addition, frontal positioning will greatly impact temperatures with areas near and south seeing mid to upper 90s and heat index values of 100 to 105 and areas north seeing mid 80s to lower 90s. That boundary is expected to hang out somewhere in or just south of the forecast area into the weekend, bringing continued shower and (at times severe) storm chances. Guidance is in decent agreement that a stronger shortwave trough slides through at some point Friday night into Saturday, potentially bringing more widespread storm chances, but for the most part, chances should be maximized near the boundary which guidance suggests could hang around into early next week. Temperature-wise, expect a slight "cooldown" Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, but upper 80s to lower 90s will return for the weekend into early next week. In summary, summery. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with passing mid to high clouds into the overnight hours. A weak front will bring a some spotty showers and possibly isolated storms to the area overnight with the highest chances of any impacts being at OFK, as any precip should diminish as it pushes east. For now, only included -SHRA mention, but can`t rule out some brief MVFR if a thunderstorm moves directly over the site. Otherwise, expect winds to remain under 12 kts and mainly be southerly today followed by southwesterly to westerly near and behind the front. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...CA